Trump's established 2026 posting rate of roughly 19 Truth Social updates per day creates a baseline near 152 posts across an eight-day window, yet markets price 200-plus as the leading outcome because recent periods have repeatedly exceeded that pace during news-driven surges. A comparable September 1-8 window settled in the 180-199 bracket after a Labor Day weekend blitz that included more than 37 posts in one session. Similar spikes have occurred around policy announcements, foreign developments, endorsements, and AI-generated content, with September activity already tracking above the annual average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to elevated volume while assigning lower but non-zero weight to outcomes between 140 and 199, reflecting both the consistent baseline and the potential for further acceleration from any major political catalyst in the resolution period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200+ 48%
160-179 18%
180-199 16%
140-159 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
<20
1%
20-39
1%
40-59
1%
60-79
1%
80-99
3%
100-119
6%
120-139
9%
140-159
12%
160-179
18%
180-199
16%
200+
48%
200+ 48%
160-179 18%
180-199 16%
140-159 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
<20
$40 Vol.
1%
20-39
$12 Vol.
1%
40-59
$12 Vol.
1%
60-79
$0 Vol.
1%
80-99
$20 Vol.
3%
100-119
$20 Vol.
6%
120-139
$40 Vol.
9%
140-159
$77 Vol.
12%
160-179
$58 Vol.
18%
180-199
$54 Vol.
16%
200+
$23 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trump's established 2026 posting rate of roughly 19 Truth Social updates per day creates a baseline near 152 posts across an eight-day window, yet markets price 200-plus as the leading outcome because recent periods have repeatedly exceeded that pace during news-driven surges. A comparable September 1-8 window settled in the 180-199 bracket after a Labor Day weekend blitz that included more than 37 posts in one session. Similar spikes have occurred around policy announcements, foreign developments, endorsements, and AI-generated content, with September activity already tracking above the annual average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to elevated volume while assigning lower but non-zero weight to outcomes between 140 and 199, reflecting both the consistent baseline and the potential for further acceleration from any major political catalyst in the resolution period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$356End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trump's established 2026 posting rate of roughly 19 Truth Social updates per day creates a baseline near 152 posts across an eight-day window, yet markets price 200-plus as the leading outcome because recent periods have repeatedly exceeded that pace during news-driven surges. A comparable September 1-8 window settled in the 180-199 bracket after a Labor Day weekend blitz that included more than 37 posts in one session. Similar spikes have occurred around policy announcements, foreign developments, endorsements, and AI-generated content, with September activity already tracking above the annual average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to elevated volume while assigning lower but non-zero weight to outcomes between 140 and 199, reflecting both the consistent baseline and the potential for further acceleration from any major political catalyst in the resolution period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$356End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trump's established 2026 posting rate of roughly 19 Truth Social updates per day creates a baseline near 152 posts across an eight-day window, yet markets price 200-plus as the leading outcome because recent periods have repeatedly exceeded that pace during news-driven surges. A comparable September 1-8 window settled in the 180-199 bracket after a Labor Day weekend blitz that included more than 37 posts in one session. Similar spikes have occurred around policy announcements, foreign developments, endorsements, and AI-generated content, with September activity already tracking above the annual average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to elevated volume while assigning lower but non-zero weight to outcomes between 140 and 199, reflecting both the consistent baseline and the potential for further acceleration from any major political catalyst in the resolution period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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