Trump's position as president through September 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any active removal process, constitutional crisis, or health event that could trigger an immediate transition. With roughly four weeks remaining, standard mechanisms such as impeachment and conviction, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or resignation lack the necessary votes, congressional momentum, or procedural timeline to conclude before the cutoff. Midterm dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine executive functions show no signs of disruption capable of altering succession in this narrow window. While low-probability shocks like sudden incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings remain theoretically possible, they face high institutional and evidentiary barriers that keep trader consensus firmly against an early exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's position as president through September 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any active removal process, constitutional crisis, or health event that could trigger an immediate transition. With roughly four weeks remaining, standard mechanisms such as impeachment and conviction, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or resignation lack the necessary votes, congressional momentum, or procedural timeline to conclude before the cutoff. Midterm dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine executive functions show no signs of disruption capable of altering succession in this narrow window. While low-probability shocks like sudden incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings remain theoretically possible, they face high institutional and evidentiary barriers that keep trader consensus firmly against an early exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's position as president through September 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any active removal process, constitutional crisis, or health event that could trigger an immediate transition. With roughly four weeks remaining, standard mechanisms such as impeachment and conviction, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or resignation lack the necessary votes, congressional momentum, or procedural timeline to conclude before the cutoff. Midterm dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine executive functions show no signs of disruption capable of altering succession in this narrow window. While low-probability shocks like sudden incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings remain theoretically possible, they face high institutional and evidentiary barriers that keep trader consensus firmly against an early exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's position as president through September 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any active removal process, constitutional crisis, or health event that could trigger an immediate transition. With roughly four weeks remaining, standard mechanisms such as impeachment and conviction, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or resignation lack the necessary votes, congressional momentum, or procedural timeline to conclude before the cutoff. Midterm dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine executive functions show no signs of disruption capable of altering succession in this narrow window. While low-probability shocks like sudden incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings remain theoretically possible, they face high institutional and evidentiary barriers that keep trader consensus firmly against an early exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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