OpenAI’s strong operational track record and infrastructure investments underpin the 83.5% market-implied odds against a full ChatGPT outage by August 31. Recent status page data shows high uptime—99.94% for APIs and 99.67% for ChatGPT—along with quick resolutions of minor incidents, including elevated errors on August 11–13 that affected only specific services or free users before full recovery. Ongoing model updates, such as the August 6 GPT-5.6 refinements for Plus and Pro users, reflect active development and stability priorities rather than systemic risk. With just over two weeks remaining and no credible reports of widespread infrastructure threats, traders view a qualifying full outage as unlikely absent an unforeseen external shock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s strong operational track record and infrastructure investments underpin the 83.5% market-implied odds against a full ChatGPT outage by August 31. Recent status page data shows high uptime—99.94% for APIs and 99.67% for ChatGPT—along with quick resolutions of minor incidents, including elevated errors on August 11–13 that affected only specific services or free users before full recovery. Ongoing model updates, such as the August 6 GPT-5.6 refinements for Plus and Pro users, reflect active development and stability priorities rather than systemic risk. With just over two weeks remaining and no credible reports of widespread infrastructure threats, traders view a qualifying full outage as unlikely absent an unforeseen external shock.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volume
$6,443End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s strong operational track record and infrastructure investments underpin the 83.5% market-implied odds against a full ChatGPT outage by August 31. Recent status page data shows high uptime—99.94% for APIs and 99.67% for ChatGPT—along with quick resolutions of minor incidents, including elevated errors on August 11–13 that affected only specific services or free users before full recovery. Ongoing model updates, such as the August 6 GPT-5.6 refinements for Plus and Pro users, reflect active development and stability priorities rather than systemic risk. With just over two weeks remaining and no credible reports of widespread infrastructure threats, traders view a qualifying full outage as unlikely absent an unforeseen external shock.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,443End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s strong operational track record and infrastructure investments underpin the 83.5% market-implied odds against a full ChatGPT outage by August 31. Recent status page data shows high uptime—99.94% for APIs and 99.67% for ChatGPT—along with quick resolutions of minor incidents, including elevated errors on August 11–13 that affected only specific services or free users before full recovery. Ongoing model updates, such as the August 6 GPT-5.6 refinements for Plus and Pro users, reflect active development and stability priorities rather than systemic risk. With just over two weeks remaining and no credible reports of widespread infrastructure threats, traders view a qualifying full outage as unlikely absent an unforeseen external shock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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