Recent Canadian CPI data showing a moderation to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, driven by slower gasoline price gains, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The central bank's decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% through mid-2026, while looking through near-term energy shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, reinforces the view that inflation pressures will ease without requiring further policy tightening. With July CPI due shortly and the BoC projecting convergence to 2% as growth stabilizes, market-implied odds favor the 2.5–2.9% range as the consensus outcome, though upside risks from persistent oil prices could shift probabilities toward higher bins if core measures reaccelerate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 39.9%
2.0–2.4% 18.7%
1.5–1.9% 16.4%
3.0-3.4% 15.3%
$38,063 Vol.
$38,063 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
3%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
16%
2.0–2.4%
14%
2.5–2.9%
40%
3.0-3.4%
15%
3.5-3.9%
13%
4.0%+
5%
2.5–2.9% 39.9%
2.0–2.4% 18.7%
1.5–1.9% 16.4%
3.0-3.4% 15.3%
$38,063 Vol.
$38,063 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$1,081 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.4%
$5,268 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$3,350 Vol.
16%
2.0–2.4%
$1,066 Vol.
14%
2.5–2.9%
$9,552 Vol.
40%
3.0-3.4%
$13,753 Vol.
15%
3.5-3.9%
$3,511 Vol.
13%
4.0%+
$482 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Canadian CPI data showing a moderation to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, driven by slower gasoline price gains, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The central bank's decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% through mid-2026, while looking through near-term energy shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, reinforces the view that inflation pressures will ease without requiring further policy tightening. With July CPI due shortly and the BoC projecting convergence to 2% as growth stabilizes, market-implied odds favor the 2.5–2.9% range as the consensus outcome, though upside risks from persistent oil prices could shift probabilities toward higher bins if core measures reaccelerate.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$38,063End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Canadian CPI data showing a moderation to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, driven by slower gasoline price gains, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The central bank's decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% through mid-2026, while looking through near-term energy shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, reinforces the view that inflation pressures will ease without requiring further policy tightening. With July CPI due shortly and the BoC projecting convergence to 2% as growth stabilizes, market-implied odds favor the 2.5–2.9% range as the consensus outcome, though upside risks from persistent oil prices could shift probabilities toward higher bins if core measures reaccelerate.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$38,063End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Canadian CPI data showing a moderation to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, driven by slower gasoline price gains, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The central bank's decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% through mid-2026, while looking through near-term energy shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, reinforces the view that inflation pressures will ease without requiring further policy tightening. With July CPI due shortly and the BoC projecting convergence to 2% as growth stabilizes, market-implied odds favor the 2.5–2.9% range as the consensus outcome, though upside risks from persistent oil prices could shift probabilities toward higher bins if core measures reaccelerate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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