Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following a 5.0% Q1 rebound, has anchored trader consensus near the 4.3-4.9% range for Q3 amid persistent softness in consumption and fixed-asset investment outside state-led sectors. Export strength and manufacturing output continue to provide support, yet weak retail sales and cautious fiscal policy limit upside momentum, keeping the two leading bins closely matched at 47.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Key swing factors include July-August industrial production and trade data, any targeted stimulus announcements ahead of the National Day holiday, and external demand resilience, with official full-year targets centered around 4.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 48%
4.6-4.9% 40%
4.0-4.3% 12.7%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$26,319 Vol.
$26,319 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
13%
4.3-4.6%
48%
4.6-4.9%
40%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 48%
4.6-4.9% 40%
4.0-4.3% 12.7%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$26,319 Vol.
$26,319 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,623 Vol.
13%
4.3-4.6%
$9,736 Vol.
48%
4.6-4.9%
$7,947 Vol.
40%
4.9-5.2%
$2,786 Vol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$879 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,020 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following a 5.0% Q1 rebound, has anchored trader consensus near the 4.3-4.9% range for Q3 amid persistent softness in consumption and fixed-asset investment outside state-led sectors. Export strength and manufacturing output continue to provide support, yet weak retail sales and cautious fiscal policy limit upside momentum, keeping the two leading bins closely matched at 47.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Key swing factors include July-August industrial production and trade data, any targeted stimulus announcements ahead of the National Day holiday, and external demand resilience, with official full-year targets centered around 4.5%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$26,319End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following a 5.0% Q1 rebound, has anchored trader consensus near the 4.3-4.9% range for Q3 amid persistent softness in consumption and fixed-asset investment outside state-led sectors. Export strength and manufacturing output continue to provide support, yet weak retail sales and cautious fiscal policy limit upside momentum, keeping the two leading bins closely matched at 47.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Key swing factors include July-August industrial production and trade data, any targeted stimulus announcements ahead of the National Day holiday, and external demand resilience, with official full-year targets centered around 4.5%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$26,319End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following a 5.0% Q1 rebound, has anchored trader consensus near the 4.3-4.9% range for Q3 amid persistent softness in consumption and fixed-asset investment outside state-led sectors. Export strength and manufacturing output continue to provide support, yet weak retail sales and cautious fiscal policy limit upside momentum, keeping the two leading bins closely matched at 47.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Key swing factors include July-August industrial production and trade data, any targeted stimulus announcements ahead of the National Day holiday, and external demand resilience, with official full-year targets centered around 4.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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