Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have surged to 5.8%, reflecting strength in consumer spending, AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that contrast with Q2’s softer 1.5% annualized print. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% underscore sticky inflation pressures from energy and shelter, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold policy rates near recent levels and temper rate-cut expectations. A labor market showing modest cooling—with unemployment near 4.1-4.4% and slowing payroll gains—adds uncertainty around consumption resilience. These crosscurrents, plus potential fiscal support and geopolitical energy risks, explain the dispersed probabilities across growth buckets, with the highest implied odds on outcomes above 3.0%. Key upcoming releases include the Q2 second estimate and August employment data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 15%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$13,700 Vol.
$13,700 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
10%
2.0–2.5%
22%
2.5–3.0%
15%
≥3.0%
33%
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 15%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$13,700 Vol.
$13,700 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$460 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
7%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
22%
2.5–3.0%
$3,145 Vol.
15%
≥3.0%
$6,446 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have surged to 5.8%, reflecting strength in consumer spending, AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that contrast with Q2’s softer 1.5% annualized print. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% underscore sticky inflation pressures from energy and shelter, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold policy rates near recent levels and temper rate-cut expectations. A labor market showing modest cooling—with unemployment near 4.1-4.4% and slowing payroll gains—adds uncertainty around consumption resilience. These crosscurrents, plus potential fiscal support and geopolitical energy risks, explain the dispersed probabilities across growth buckets, with the highest implied odds on outcomes above 3.0%. Key upcoming releases include the Q2 second estimate and August employment data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$13,700End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have surged to 5.8%, reflecting strength in consumer spending, AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that contrast with Q2’s softer 1.5% annualized print. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% underscore sticky inflation pressures from energy and shelter, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold policy rates near recent levels and temper rate-cut expectations. A labor market showing modest cooling—with unemployment near 4.1-4.4% and slowing payroll gains—adds uncertainty around consumption resilience. These crosscurrents, plus potential fiscal support and geopolitical energy risks, explain the dispersed probabilities across growth buckets, with the highest implied odds on outcomes above 3.0%. Key upcoming releases include the Q2 second estimate and August employment data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$13,700End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have surged to 5.8%, reflecting strength in consumer spending, AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that contrast with Q2’s softer 1.5% annualized print. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% underscore sticky inflation pressures from energy and shelter, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold policy rates near recent levels and temper rate-cut expectations. A labor market showing modest cooling—with unemployment near 4.1-4.4% and slowing payroll gains—adds uncertainty around consumption resilience. These crosscurrents, plus potential fiscal support and geopolitical energy risks, explain the dispersed probabilities across growth buckets, with the highest implied odds on outcomes above 3.0%. Key upcoming releases include the Q2 second estimate and August employment data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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