Recent CPI data for July showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts estimating core PCE MoM at 0.25%, have anchored trader expectations around the 0.2% outcome as the most probable result when the BEA releases the figure on August 26. June's actual 0.1% print and moderating shelter and energy components contributed to the cooling trajectory, while persistent services inflation keeps higher readings like 0.3% viable in market-implied odds. These probabilities reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the data, with upcoming labor market and retail sales figures likely to provide further signals on the inflation path before release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 53%
0.3% 25%
0.1% 12.9%
0.4%+ 4.5%
$28,560 Vol.
$28,560 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
13%
0.2%
53%
0.3%
25%
0.4%+
5%
0.2% 53%
0.3% 25%
0.1% 12.9%
0.4%+ 4.5%
$28,560 Vol.
$28,560 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 Vol.
<1%
-0.1%
$820 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$970 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$2,270 Vol.
13%
0.2%
$3,671 Vol.
53%
0.3%
$17,156 Vol.
25%
0.4%+
$3,067 Vol.
5%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent CPI data for July showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts estimating core PCE MoM at 0.25%, have anchored trader expectations around the 0.2% outcome as the most probable result when the BEA releases the figure on August 26. June's actual 0.1% print and moderating shelter and energy components contributed to the cooling trajectory, while persistent services inflation keeps higher readings like 0.3% viable in market-implied odds. These probabilities reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the data, with upcoming labor market and retail sales figures likely to provide further signals on the inflation path before release.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$28,560End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent CPI data for July showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts estimating core PCE MoM at 0.25%, have anchored trader expectations around the 0.2% outcome as the most probable result when the BEA releases the figure on August 26. June's actual 0.1% print and moderating shelter and energy components contributed to the cooling trajectory, while persistent services inflation keeps higher readings like 0.3% viable in market-implied odds. These probabilities reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the data, with upcoming labor market and retail sales figures likely to provide further signals on the inflation path before release.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$28,560End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent CPI data for July showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts estimating core PCE MoM at 0.25%, have anchored trader expectations around the 0.2% outcome as the most probable result when the BEA releases the figure on August 26. June's actual 0.1% print and moderating shelter and energy components contributed to the cooling trajectory, while persistent services inflation keeps higher readings like 0.3% viable in market-implied odds. These probabilities reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the data, with upcoming labor market and retail sales figures likely to provide further signals on the inflation path before release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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