Recent moderation in Canadian CPI, which fell to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May amid sharply lower gasoline prices and softer food and shelter costs, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the 2.5–2.9% band. The Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report reinforces this positioning by projecting inflation easing toward its 2% target amid subpar growth and cooling core measures (median and trimmed-mean both at multi-year lows near 1.8–1.9%). Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty from energy volatility and potential July CPI data due August 17, while the 3.0–3.4% range retains secondary support if oil prices rebound. Broader forecasts from sources such as TD Economics and Consensus Economics point to annual averages clustering around 2.5–2.8% for 2026, consistent with the leading outcome priced at 39.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 39.5%
3.0-3.4% 15.5%
2.0–2.4% 13.8%
1.5–1.9% 13.3%
$37,930 Vol.
$37,930 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
3%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
13%
2.0–2.4%
14%
2.5–2.9%
40%
3.0-3.4%
16%
3.5-3.9%
13%
4.0%+
1%
2.5–2.9% 39.5%
3.0-3.4% 15.5%
2.0–2.4% 13.8%
1.5–1.9% 13.3%
$37,930 Vol.
$37,930 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$1,081 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.4%
$5,268 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$3,350 Vol.
13%
2.0–2.4%
$932 Vol.
14%
2.5–2.9%
$9,552 Vol.
40%
3.0-3.4%
$13,753 Vol.
16%
3.5-3.9%
$3,511 Vol.
13%
4.0%+
$482 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent moderation in Canadian CPI, which fell to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May amid sharply lower gasoline prices and softer food and shelter costs, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the 2.5–2.9% band. The Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report reinforces this positioning by projecting inflation easing toward its 2% target amid subpar growth and cooling core measures (median and trimmed-mean both at multi-year lows near 1.8–1.9%). Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty from energy volatility and potential July CPI data due August 17, while the 3.0–3.4% range retains secondary support if oil prices rebound. Broader forecasts from sources such as TD Economics and Consensus Economics point to annual averages clustering around 2.5–2.8% for 2026, consistent with the leading outcome priced at 39.5%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$37,930End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent moderation in Canadian CPI, which fell to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May amid sharply lower gasoline prices and softer food and shelter costs, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the 2.5–2.9% band. The Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report reinforces this positioning by projecting inflation easing toward its 2% target amid subpar growth and cooling core measures (median and trimmed-mean both at multi-year lows near 1.8–1.9%). Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty from energy volatility and potential July CPI data due August 17, while the 3.0–3.4% range retains secondary support if oil prices rebound. Broader forecasts from sources such as TD Economics and Consensus Economics point to annual averages clustering around 2.5–2.8% for 2026, consistent with the leading outcome priced at 39.5%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$37,930End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Canadian CPI, which fell to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May amid sharply lower gasoline prices and softer food and shelter costs, has anchored trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average near the 2.5–2.9% band. The Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report reinforces this positioning by projecting inflation easing toward its 2% target amid subpar growth and cooling core measures (median and trimmed-mean both at multi-year lows near 1.8–1.9%). Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty from energy volatility and potential July CPI data due August 17, while the 3.0–3.4% range retains secondary support if oil prices rebound. Broader forecasts from sources such as TD Economics and Consensus Economics point to annual averages clustering around 2.5–2.8% for 2026, consistent with the leading outcome priced at 39.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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