The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision follows its July 25 basis point cut to 14%, amid annual inflation near 6% and a revised 2026 forecast of 6–7% driven by fuel price spikes and one-off factors. Underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5% annualized, while moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and more expansionary fiscal policy create mixed signals for further easing. Traders price a high probability of no change because the central bank has emphasized data-dependent caution and a smoother rate path, with inflation expectations still elevated. A decrease retains meaningful odds if incoming price and demand data soften further before the meeting, whereas an increase remains remote given the recent easing cycle and subdued capacity pressures.