Recent Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels with stable outlooks, removing immediate pressure for further action. Persistent high deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on fiscal metrics, yet no major debt-ceiling impasse or sudden deterioration has materialized to prompt additional reviews. Traders assess that the current political environment, including legislative budget processes and absence of acute governance shocks, supports ratings stability through 2026. This consensus on the “No” outcome at 83.5% reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting agency assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
16% chance
$12,816 Vol.
$12,816 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$12,816 Vol.
$12,816 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels with stable outlooks, removing immediate pressure for further action. Persistent high deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on fiscal metrics, yet no major debt-ceiling impasse or sudden deterioration has materialized to prompt additional reviews. Traders assess that the current political environment, including legislative budget processes and absence of acute governance shocks, supports ratings stability through 2026. This consensus on the “No” outcome at 83.5% reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting agency assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$12,816End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels with stable outlooks, removing immediate pressure for further action. Persistent high deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on fiscal metrics, yet no major debt-ceiling impasse or sudden deterioration has materialized to prompt additional reviews. Traders assess that the current political environment, including legislative budget processes and absence of acute governance shocks, supports ratings stability through 2026. This consensus on the “No” outcome at 83.5% reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting agency assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$12,816End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels with stable outlooks, removing immediate pressure for further action. Persistent high deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on fiscal metrics, yet no major debt-ceiling impasse or sudden deterioration has materialized to prompt additional reviews. Traders assess that the current political environment, including legislative budget processes and absence of acute governance shocks, supports ratings stability through 2026. This consensus on the “No” outcome at 83.5% reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting agency assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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