**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a data-dependent policy stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core measures easing modestly, while the labor market showed signs of softening including weaker nonfarm payrolls, supporting the view that the Fed would hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through September rather than ease or hike. Futures markets similarly price limited odds of near-term changes, with the July decision already resulting in a hold amid elevated uncertainty from geopolitical factors. Upcoming September data releases on inflation and employment remain key swing factors that could alter the path, though the current trajectory favors an extended pause.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 28%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,440 Vol.
$738,440 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
28%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 28%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,440 Vol.
$738,440 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,070 Vol.
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$72,875 Vol.
1%
Other
$319,619 Vol.
28%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a data-dependent policy stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh.**
July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core measures easing modestly, while the labor market showed signs of softening including weaker nonfarm payrolls, supporting the view that the Fed would hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through September rather than ease or hike. Futures markets similarly price limited odds of near-term changes, with the July decision already resulting in a hold amid elevated uncertainty from geopolitical factors. Upcoming September data releases on inflation and employment remain key swing factors that could alter the path, though the current trajectory favors an extended pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$738,440End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a data-dependent policy stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh.**
July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core measures easing modestly, while the labor market showed signs of softening including weaker nonfarm payrolls, supporting the view that the Fed would hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through September rather than ease or hike. Futures markets similarly price limited odds of near-term changes, with the July decision already resulting in a hold amid elevated uncertainty from geopolitical factors. Upcoming September data releases on inflation and employment remain key swing factors that could alter the path, though the current trajectory favors an extended pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$738,440End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a data-dependent policy stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core measures easing modestly, while the labor market showed signs of softening including weaker nonfarm payrolls, supporting the view that the Fed would hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through September rather than ease or hike. Futures markets similarly price limited odds of near-term changes, with the July decision already resulting in a hold amid elevated uncertainty from geopolitical factors. Upcoming September data releases on inflation and employment remain key swing factors that could alter the path, though the current trajectory favors an extended pause.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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