Tropical Storm Norbert reached a peak intensity of 60 mph sustained winds on September 12 before steadily weakening amid increasing vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air in the Central Pacific. National Hurricane Center advisories documented its transition to a tropical depression and then a post-tropical remnant low by September 15, with final winds near 35 mph roughly 780 miles east of Hawaii. No further development is possible for the dissipated system, producing the market's near-certain "No" consensus on strengthening to hurricane thresholds of 74 mph. Forecasters note that only an improbable re-formation over unusually warm waters could alter this outcome, though current conditions preclude any such revival.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
<1% chance
$402 Vol.
$402 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
<1% chance
$402 Vol.
$402 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert reached a peak intensity of 60 mph sustained winds on September 12 before steadily weakening amid increasing vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air in the Central Pacific. National Hurricane Center advisories documented its transition to a tropical depression and then a post-tropical remnant low by September 15, with final winds near 35 mph roughly 780 miles east of Hawaii. No further development is possible for the dissipated system, producing the market's near-certain "No" consensus on strengthening to hurricane thresholds of 74 mph. Forecasters note that only an improbable re-formation over unusually warm waters could alter this outcome, though current conditions preclude any such revival.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$402End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert reached a peak intensity of 60 mph sustained winds on September 12 before steadily weakening amid increasing vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air in the Central Pacific. National Hurricane Center advisories documented its transition to a tropical depression and then a post-tropical remnant low by September 15, with final winds near 35 mph roughly 780 miles east of Hawaii. No further development is possible for the dissipated system, producing the market's near-certain "No" consensus on strengthening to hurricane thresholds of 74 mph. Forecasters note that only an improbable re-formation over unusually warm waters could alter this outcome, though current conditions preclude any such revival.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$402End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Norbert reached a peak intensity of 60 mph sustained winds on September 12 before steadily weakening amid increasing vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air in the Central Pacific. National Hurricane Center advisories documented its transition to a tropical depression and then a post-tropical remnant low by September 15, with final winds near 35 mph roughly 780 miles east of Hawaii. No further development is possible for the dissipated system, producing the market's near-certain "No" consensus on strengthening to hurricane thresholds of 74 mph. Forecasters note that only an improbable re-formation over unusually warm waters could alter this outcome, though current conditions preclude any such revival.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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