NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in key Niño regions and model ensembles projecting further intensification. The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (RONI thresholds indicating historic strength) for fall and winter 2026–27, aligning closely with the market’s 93.7% implied odds for a “Super El Niño.” This consensus draws from consistent multi-model runs and observed atmospheric-ocean coupling. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude, as forecast adjustments or unanticipated cooling could still shift outcomes before the October–December period when probabilities peak. The next official update is scheduled for September 10.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% chance
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2027
94% chance
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in key Niño regions and model ensembles projecting further intensification. The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (RONI thresholds indicating historic strength) for fall and winter 2026–27, aligning closely with the market’s 93.7% implied odds for a “Super El Niño.” This consensus draws from consistent multi-model runs and observed atmospheric-ocean coupling. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude, as forecast adjustments or unanticipated cooling could still shift outcomes before the October–December period when probabilities peak. The next official update is scheduled for September 10.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$5,382End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in key Niño regions and model ensembles projecting further intensification. The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (RONI thresholds indicating historic strength) for fall and winter 2026–27, aligning closely with the market’s 93.7% implied odds for a “Super El Niño.” This consensus draws from consistent multi-model runs and observed atmospheric-ocean coupling. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude, as forecast adjustments or unanticipated cooling could still shift outcomes before the October–December period when probabilities peak. The next official update is scheduled for September 10.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$5,382End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in key Niño regions and model ensembles projecting further intensification. The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (RONI thresholds indicating historic strength) for fall and winter 2026–27, aligning closely with the market’s 93.7% implied odds for a “Super El Niño.” This consensus draws from consistent multi-model runs and observed atmospheric-ocean coupling. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude, as forecast adjustments or unanticipated cooling could still shift outcomes before the October–December period when probabilities peak. The next official update is scheduled for September 10.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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