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icon for Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?

Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?

icon for Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?

Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?

18% chance
Polymarket
NEW
18% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork. Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.The high 81.5% market-implied odds for “No” reflect the Salvator Mundi’s nearly nine-year absence from public view since its 2017 record sale, with the Leonardo-attributed panel remaining in private Saudi royal storage—reportedly a Geneva vault—pending completion of major new museums tied to Vision 2030. No Saudi cultural institutions or lenders have announced any exhibition, loan, or display before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, and ambitious plans positioning the work as a Mona Lisa-style cultural anchor in Riyadh or Al-Ula remain years away. Past cancellations, including a 2018 Louvre Abu Dhabi showing and a 2019 Paris Louvre slot derailed by display demands, underscore the pattern of delays. With only months left and no fresh institutional commitments or announcements, trader consensus views short-term public exhibition as improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork.

Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.
Volume
$2,226
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork. Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork. Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.The high 81.5% market-implied odds for “No” reflect the Salvator Mundi’s nearly nine-year absence from public view since its 2017 record sale, with the Leonardo-attributed panel remaining in private Saudi royal storage—reportedly a Geneva vault—pending completion of major new museums tied to Vision 2030. No Saudi cultural institutions or lenders have announced any exhibition, loan, or display before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, and ambitious plans positioning the work as a Mona Lisa-style cultural anchor in Riyadh or Al-Ula remain years away. Past cancellations, including a 2018 Louvre Abu Dhabi showing and a 2019 Paris Louvre slot derailed by display demands, underscore the pattern of delays. With only months left and no fresh institutional commitments or announcements, trader consensus views short-term public exhibition as improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork.

Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.
Volume
$2,226
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork. Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.