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What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

icon for What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Aug 18

Aug 18

Don't Say Good Luck 90%

The Last House 5.7%

72 Hours 4.5%

In the Land of Saints and Sinners 2.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Don't Say Good Luck 90%

The Last House 5.7%

72 Hours 4.5%

In the Land of Saints and Sinners 2.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Don't Say Good Luck

Don't Say Good Luck

$505 Vol.

84%

icon for The Last House

The Last House

$59 Vol.

6%

icon for 72 Hours

72 Hours

$392 Vol.

5%

icon for In the Land of Saints and Sinners

In the Land of Saints and Sinners

$1,032 Vol.

2%

icon for Spider-Man: Far from Home

Spider-Man: Far from Home

$413 Vol.

2%

icon for Minions

Minions

$414 Vol.

2%

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Don't Say Good Luck enters the market as the clear frontrunner for the #2 US Netflix movie this week, with its 85.5% implied probability driven by its August 14, 2026 release date and early 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Adam Sandler-produced musical teen dramedy about a high school theater kid facing family drama benefits from strong cast visibility, including Sunny Sandler, Melanie Lynskey, and Steve Buscemi, plus targeted promotional push. Traders appear to discount older catalog titles and lower-profile releases such as The Last House or In the Land of Saints and Sinners, which sit below 3%, reflecting limited new momentum or audience interest. Upcoming chart updates in the first 48 hours post-premiere will likely confirm or adjust this consensus.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,816
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Don't Say Good Luck enters the market as the clear frontrunner for the #2 US Netflix movie this week, with its 85.5% implied probability driven by its August 14, 2026 release date and early 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Adam Sandler-produced musical teen dramedy about a high school theater kid facing family drama benefits from strong cast visibility, including Sunny Sandler, Melanie Lynskey, and Steve Buscemi, plus targeted promotional push. Traders appear to discount older catalog titles and lower-profile releases such as The Last House or In the Land of Saints and Sinners, which sit below 3%, reflecting limited new momentum or audience interest. Upcoming chart updates in the first 48 hours post-premiere will likely confirm or adjust this consensus.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,816
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Don't Say Good Luck" at 84%, followed by "The Last House" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?" is "Don't Say Good Luck" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Last House" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.