The February 2026 auction of Logan Paul's PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card for $16.492 million established a new all-time record, more than tripling his prior purchase price and outpacing the previous sports-card benchmark of $12.932 million. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" through year-end because subsequent 2026 public sales have remained well below this threshold, with no comparable one-of-one ultra-rare specimens—whether Pokémon promos or basketball logomans—surfacing in the remaining months. High-end hobby momentum has moderated after the headline event, and major auction houses have not announced inventory capable of challenging the mark before December. A late private transaction or unexpected discovery of another pristine 1/1 could theoretically reset the bar, yet the compressed timeline and historical scarcity of such outliers underpin the strong market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDoes a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?
8% chance
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8% chance
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.
Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.
If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The February 2026 auction of Logan Paul's PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card for $16.492 million established a new all-time record, more than tripling his prior purchase price and outpacing the previous sports-card benchmark of $12.932 million. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" through year-end because subsequent 2026 public sales have remained well below this threshold, with no comparable one-of-one ultra-rare specimens—whether Pokémon promos or basketball logomans—surfacing in the remaining months. High-end hobby momentum has moderated after the headline event, and major auction houses have not announced inventory capable of challenging the mark before December. A late private transaction or unexpected discovery of another pristine 1/1 could theoretically reset the bar, yet the compressed timeline and historical scarcity of such outliers underpin the strong market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.
Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.
If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.
Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.
If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,289Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.
Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.
If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The February 2026 auction of Logan Paul's PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card for $16.492 million established a new all-time record, more than tripling his prior purchase price and outpacing the previous sports-card benchmark of $12.932 million. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" through year-end because subsequent 2026 public sales have remained well below this threshold, with no comparable one-of-one ultra-rare specimens—whether Pokémon promos or basketball logomans—surfacing in the remaining months. High-end hobby momentum has moderated after the headline event, and major auction houses have not announced inventory capable of challenging the mark before December. A late private transaction or unexpected discovery of another pristine 1/1 could theoretically reset the bar, yet the compressed timeline and historical scarcity of such outliers underpin the strong market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.
Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.
If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.
Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.
If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,289Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 auction of Logan Paul's PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card for $16.492 million established a new all-time record, more than tripling his prior purchase price and outpacing the previous sports-card benchmark of $12.932 million. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" through year-end because subsequent 2026 public sales have remained well below this threshold, with no comparable one-of-one ultra-rare specimens—whether Pokémon promos or basketball logomans—surfacing in the remaining months. High-end hobby momentum has moderated after the headline event, and major auction houses have not announced inventory capable of challenging the mark before December. A late private transaction or unexpected discovery of another pristine 1/1 could theoretically reset the bar, yet the compressed timeline and historical scarcity of such outliers underpin the strong market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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