Elon Musk’s recent posting pace—averaging roughly 25–40 original posts and replies daily amid ongoing AI model updates, Grok benchmarks, and Tesla commentary—has anchored trader expectations for the August 11–18 window firmly in the 180–239 range. The near-even split between the 200–219 and 180–199 bins reflects the inherent variability in his output, which spikes with major product news or platform developments and dips during quieter stretches. With four days remaining, any high-profile launch, regulatory announcement, or viral thread could push totals higher, while sustained lower engagement would favor the lower brackets. Markets price this week’s outcome as a tight contest shaped by his established baseline rather than a single catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 27%
180-199 26%
220-239 20%
160-179 12%
$716,345 Vol.
$716,345 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
2%
160-179
12%
180-199
26%
200-219
27%
220-239
20%
240-259
11%
260-279
4%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 27%
180-199 26%
220-239 20%
160-179 12%
$716,345 Vol.
$716,345 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
80-99
$53,604 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$60,400 Vol.
<1%
120-139
$75,138 Vol.
<1%
140-159
$39,523 Vol.
2%
160-179
$44,336 Vol.
12%
180-199
$41,981 Vol.
26%
200-219
$21,117 Vol.
27%
220-239
$14,549 Vol.
20%
240-259
$23,060 Vol.
11%
260-279
$30,907 Vol.
4%
280-299
$32,308 Vol.
1%
300-319
$37,034 Vol.
1%
320-339
$23,094 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$24,701 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$27,969 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$23,087 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$17,118 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$14,300 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$14,044 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$6,196 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$5,696 Vol.
<1%
500+
$42,869 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting pace—averaging roughly 25–40 original posts and replies daily amid ongoing AI model updates, Grok benchmarks, and Tesla commentary—has anchored trader expectations for the August 11–18 window firmly in the 180–239 range. The near-even split between the 200–219 and 180–199 bins reflects the inherent variability in his output, which spikes with major product news or platform developments and dips during quieter stretches. With four days remaining, any high-profile launch, regulatory announcement, or viral thread could push totals higher, while sustained lower engagement would favor the lower brackets. Markets price this week’s outcome as a tight contest shaped by his established baseline rather than a single catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$716,345End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting pace—averaging roughly 25–40 original posts and replies daily amid ongoing AI model updates, Grok benchmarks, and Tesla commentary—has anchored trader expectations for the August 11–18 window firmly in the 180–239 range. The near-even split between the 200–219 and 180–199 bins reflects the inherent variability in his output, which spikes with major product news or platform developments and dips during quieter stretches. With four days remaining, any high-profile launch, regulatory announcement, or viral thread could push totals higher, while sustained lower engagement would favor the lower brackets. Markets price this week’s outcome as a tight contest shaped by his established baseline rather than a single catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$716,345End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent posting pace—averaging roughly 25–40 original posts and replies daily amid ongoing AI model updates, Grok benchmarks, and Tesla commentary—has anchored trader expectations for the August 11–18 window firmly in the 180–239 range. The near-even split between the 200–219 and 180–199 bins reflects the inherent variability in his output, which spikes with major product news or platform developments and dips during quieter stretches. With four days remaining, any high-profile launch, regulatory announcement, or viral thread could push totals higher, while sustained lower engagement would favor the lower brackets. Markets price this week’s outcome as a tight contest shaped by his established baseline rather than a single catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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