Elon Musk's posting patterns position the 65-89 tweet range as the market favorite for the August 13-15 window, reflecting trader consensus around his recent baseline of roughly 20-30 posts per day during moderate activity periods. Recent X activity shows steady engagement tied to Grok 4.6 performance updates and AI coding benchmarks, without the spikes seen during product launches or major controversies. Historical data indicates volume fluctuates sharply—rising above 40-50 daily during high-intensity stretches or dipping lower amid quieter stretches—with no announced events like Starship tests or Tesla unveilings expected to shift momentum before the period closes. This keeps the implied probability concentrated in the mid-range bracket while leaving room for variance driven by real-time platform engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65-89 56%
90-114 24.4%
40-64 17%
115-139 2.9%
$275,146 Vol.
$275,146 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
40-64
17%
65-89
56%
90-114
24%
115-139
3%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 56%
90-114 24.4%
40-64 17%
115-139 2.9%
$275,146 Vol.
$275,146 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
40-64
$42,567 Vol.
17%
65-89
$35,856 Vol.
56%
90-114
$43,163 Vol.
24%
115-139
$29,068 Vol.
3%
140-164
$20,845 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$21,174 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$5,952 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$4,949 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,257 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's posting patterns position the 65-89 tweet range as the market favorite for the August 13-15 window, reflecting trader consensus around his recent baseline of roughly 20-30 posts per day during moderate activity periods. Recent X activity shows steady engagement tied to Grok 4.6 performance updates and AI coding benchmarks, without the spikes seen during product launches or major controversies. Historical data indicates volume fluctuates sharply—rising above 40-50 daily during high-intensity stretches or dipping lower amid quieter stretches—with no announced events like Starship tests or Tesla unveilings expected to shift momentum before the period closes. This keeps the implied probability concentrated in the mid-range bracket while leaving room for variance driven by real-time platform engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$275,146End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's posting patterns position the 65-89 tweet range as the market favorite for the August 13-15 window, reflecting trader consensus around his recent baseline of roughly 20-30 posts per day during moderate activity periods. Recent X activity shows steady engagement tied to Grok 4.6 performance updates and AI coding benchmarks, without the spikes seen during product launches or major controversies. Historical data indicates volume fluctuates sharply—rising above 40-50 daily during high-intensity stretches or dipping lower amid quieter stretches—with no announced events like Starship tests or Tesla unveilings expected to shift momentum before the period closes. This keeps the implied probability concentrated in the mid-range bracket while leaving room for variance driven by real-time platform engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$275,146End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's posting patterns position the 65-89 tweet range as the market favorite for the August 13-15 window, reflecting trader consensus around his recent baseline of roughly 20-30 posts per day during moderate activity periods. Recent X activity shows steady engagement tied to Grok 4.6 performance updates and AI coding benchmarks, without the spikes seen during product launches or major controversies. Historical data indicates volume fluctuates sharply—rising above 40-50 daily during high-intensity stretches or dipping lower amid quieter stretches—with no announced events like Starship tests or Tesla unveilings expected to shift momentum before the period closes. This keeps the implied probability concentrated in the mid-range bracket while leaving room for variance driven by real-time platform engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions