Persistent drought across the Rhine basin has driven water levels at key gauges like Kaub to record lows near 13 cm as of late September 2026, far below navigation thresholds and the lowest in at least thirty years. Minimal rainfall in Alpine headwaters, with recent 45-day totals 25% below normal and short-term forecasts similarly dry, has sustained the decline since early summer and limited any near-term rebound. These conditions have curtailed barge traffic, raised freight costs, and shifted cargo to rail and road, keeping trader consensus heavily weighted toward no return to normal levels before November. October carries secondary probability given seasonal patterns, while September recovery remains remote amid ongoing deficits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
No return before November 1, 2026 56%
October 1 - 31, 2026 40%
September 15 - 30, 2026 1.3%
$47,549 Vol.
$47,549 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 15 - 30, 2026
1%
October 1 - 31, 2026
40%
No return before November 1, 2026
56%
No return before November 1, 2026 56%
October 1 - 31, 2026 40%
September 15 - 30, 2026 1.3%
$47,549 Vol.
$47,549 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 15 - 30, 2026
$15,389 Vol.
1%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$12,447 Vol.
40%
No return before November 1, 2026
$11,963 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent drought across the Rhine basin has driven water levels at key gauges like Kaub to record lows near 13 cm as of late September 2026, far below navigation thresholds and the lowest in at least thirty years. Minimal rainfall in Alpine headwaters, with recent 45-day totals 25% below normal and short-term forecasts similarly dry, has sustained the decline since early summer and limited any near-term rebound. These conditions have curtailed barge traffic, raised freight costs, and shifted cargo to rail and road, keeping trader consensus heavily weighted toward no return to normal levels before November. October carries secondary probability given seasonal patterns, while September recovery remains remote amid ongoing deficits.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$47,549End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent drought across the Rhine basin has driven water levels at key gauges like Kaub to record lows near 13 cm as of late September 2026, far below navigation thresholds and the lowest in at least thirty years. Minimal rainfall in Alpine headwaters, with recent 45-day totals 25% below normal and short-term forecasts similarly dry, has sustained the decline since early summer and limited any near-term rebound. These conditions have curtailed barge traffic, raised freight costs, and shifted cargo to rail and road, keeping trader consensus heavily weighted toward no return to normal levels before November. October carries secondary probability given seasonal patterns, while September recovery remains remote amid ongoing deficits.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Volume
$47,549End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent drought across the Rhine basin has driven water levels at key gauges like Kaub to record lows near 13 cm as of late September 2026, far below navigation thresholds and the lowest in at least thirty years. Minimal rainfall in Alpine headwaters, with recent 45-day totals 25% below normal and short-term forecasts similarly dry, has sustained the decline since early summer and limited any near-term rebound. These conditions have curtailed barge traffic, raised freight costs, and shifted cargo to rail and road, keeping trader consensus heavily weighted toward no return to normal levels before November. October carries secondary probability given seasonal patterns, while September recovery remains remote amid ongoing deficits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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