Steven Del Duca holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Vaughan mayoral race as the incumbent seeking re-election on October 26. His position stems from a record of zero local property tax increases in the 2026 budget, reductions in development charges to spur housing, and recent federal-provincial funding of up to $697.2 million announced August 26 for infrastructure tied to those policies. Nominations closed August 21 with only one other certified candidate, Shelly-Ann Starlette Cerrelli, alongside limited visibility for additional names such as Parveen Bola. Del Duca’s platform centers on affordability, traffic relief, and public safety measures including police budget support. Late developments such as scandals, major polling shifts, or health events remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome before election day.