High engagement in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations stems from its status as a tightly contested national vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, economic stability, and geopolitical security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff pressures. Recent polls show the outcome too close to call, with Gallup and Maskína surveys fluctuating within the margin of error between roughly 48-52% support. Record advance voting—exceeding 21% of the electorate by late August, far above prior benchmarks—signals elevated mobilization, consistent with 80-81% turnout in the 2024 parliamentary and presidential elections. Government messaging framing the vote as a “now or never” decision has further boosted participation without the lower turnout typical of less salient referendums. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 65-85% bands as the most probable range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65–70% 52%
70–75% 52%
75–80% 50%
55–60% 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
10%
45–50%
10%
50–55%
47%
55–60%
48%
60–65%
46%
65–70%
52%
70–75%
52%
75–80%
50%
80–85%
-
85%+
20%
65–70% 52%
70–75% 52%
75–80% 50%
55–60% 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$66 Vol.
10%
45–50%
$40 Vol.
10%
50–55%
$0 Vol.
47%
55–60%
$0 Vol.
48%
60–65%
$0 Vol.
46%
65–70%
$0 Vol.
52%
70–75%
$0 Vol.
52%
75–80%
$0 Vol.
50%
80–85%
$7 Vol.
-
85%+
$0 Vol.
20%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High engagement in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations stems from its status as a tightly contested national vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, economic stability, and geopolitical security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff pressures. Recent polls show the outcome too close to call, with Gallup and Maskína surveys fluctuating within the margin of error between roughly 48-52% support. Record advance voting—exceeding 21% of the electorate by late August, far above prior benchmarks—signals elevated mobilization, consistent with 80-81% turnout in the 2024 parliamentary and presidential elections. Government messaging framing the vote as a “now or never” decision has further boosted participation without the lower turnout typical of less salient referendums. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 65-85% bands as the most probable range.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High engagement in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations stems from its status as a tightly contested national vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, economic stability, and geopolitical security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff pressures. Recent polls show the outcome too close to call, with Gallup and Maskína surveys fluctuating within the margin of error between roughly 48-52% support. Record advance voting—exceeding 21% of the electorate by late August, far above prior benchmarks—signals elevated mobilization, consistent with 80-81% turnout in the 2024 parliamentary and presidential elections. Government messaging framing the vote as a “now or never” decision has further boosted participation without the lower turnout typical of less salient referendums. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 65-85% bands as the most probable range.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$113End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High engagement in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations stems from its status as a tightly contested national vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, economic stability, and geopolitical security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff pressures. Recent polls show the outcome too close to call, with Gallup and Maskína surveys fluctuating within the margin of error between roughly 48-52% support. Record advance voting—exceeding 21% of the electorate by late August, far above prior benchmarks—signals elevated mobilization, consistent with 80-81% turnout in the 2024 parliamentary and presidential elections. Government messaging framing the vote as a “now or never” decision has further boosted participation without the lower turnout typical of less salient referendums. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 65-85% bands as the most probable range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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