Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371 billion—sharply below 2025 levels—reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Tariffs implemented since February 2025 have curbed import growth in capital and consumer goods while exports, particularly in services and energy, have expanded at a faster pace, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2034 amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. These dynamics underpin the market-implied 41.5% probability for an $800–900 billion annual outcome, with the 700–800 billion bucket at 29.5% capturing potential further moderation if import compression persists. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in trade policy uncertainty that could alter import demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
32%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
6%
1.1T+
6%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
32%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
6%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371 billion—sharply below 2025 levels—reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Tariffs implemented since February 2025 have curbed import growth in capital and consumer goods while exports, particularly in services and energy, have expanded at a faster pace, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2034 amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. These dynamics underpin the market-implied 41.5% probability for an $800–900 billion annual outcome, with the 700–800 billion bucket at 29.5% capturing potential further moderation if import compression persists. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in trade policy uncertainty that could alter import demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371 billion—sharply below 2025 levels—reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Tariffs implemented since February 2025 have curbed import growth in capital and consumer goods while exports, particularly in services and energy, have expanded at a faster pace, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2034 amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. These dynamics underpin the market-implied 41.5% probability for an $800–900 billion annual outcome, with the 700–800 billion bucket at 29.5% capturing potential further moderation if import compression persists. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in trade policy uncertainty that could alter import demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371 billion—sharply below 2025 levels—reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Tariffs implemented since February 2025 have curbed import growth in capital and consumer goods while exports, particularly in services and energy, have expanded at a faster pace, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2034 amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. These dynamics underpin the market-implied 41.5% probability for an $800–900 billion annual outcome, with the 700–800 billion bucket at 29.5% capturing potential further moderation if import compression persists. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in trade policy uncertainty that could alter import demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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