Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade deficits have narrowed to the $73 billion range in June 2026 from higher levels in late 2025, reflecting the lagged impact of 2025 tariff increases that raised import prices and curbed purchases of capital and consumer goods. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, well below the prior-year pace, while CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through 2026 as supply chains adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning favoring the 700–900 billion bracket therefore embeds expectations that tariff-driven import compression will persist without triggering a sharp rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory export losses. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any further trade-policy adjustments that could alter import volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
32%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
32%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade deficits have narrowed to the $73 billion range in June 2026 from higher levels in late 2025, reflecting the lagged impact of 2025 tariff increases that raised import prices and curbed purchases of capital and consumer goods. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, well below the prior-year pace, while CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through 2026 as supply chains adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning favoring the 700–900 billion bracket therefore embeds expectations that tariff-driven import compression will persist without triggering a sharp rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory export losses. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any further trade-policy adjustments that could alter import volumes.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade deficits have narrowed to the $73 billion range in June 2026 from higher levels in late 2025, reflecting the lagged impact of 2025 tariff increases that raised import prices and curbed purchases of capital and consumer goods. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, well below the prior-year pace, while CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through 2026 as supply chains adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning favoring the 700–900 billion bracket therefore embeds expectations that tariff-driven import compression will persist without triggering a sharp rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory export losses. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any further trade-policy adjustments that could alter import volumes.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade deficits have narrowed to the $73 billion range in June 2026 from higher levels in late 2025, reflecting the lagged impact of 2025 tariff increases that raised import prices and curbed purchases of capital and consumer goods. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, well below the prior-year pace, while CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through 2026 as supply chains adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning favoring the 700–900 billion bracket therefore embeds expectations that tariff-driven import compression will persist without triggering a sharp rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory export losses. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any further trade-policy adjustments that could alter import volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions