Traders assign an 84.5% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 primarily due to the compressed legislative calendar and limited progress on broad regulatory frameworks. With only months remaining in 2026, Congress has advanced narrower measures on chatbot safeguards, digital replicas, and nonconsensual imagery but has not moved omnibus legislation addressing frontier model oversight or mandatory risk assessments. Executive actions under the current administration emphasize innovation, national security partnerships, and voluntary evaluations rather than prescriptive mandates. State-level enactments in California, New York, and Illinois on frontier AI transparency continue to fill the gap, while proposals for federal preemption or moratoriums on state rules have stalled. This environment leaves insufficient time for Senate confirmation processes, committee markups, or floor votes on major new requirements before the year-end deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 84.5% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 primarily due to the compressed legislative calendar and limited progress on broad regulatory frameworks. With only months remaining in 2026, Congress has advanced narrower measures on chatbot safeguards, digital replicas, and nonconsensual imagery but has not moved omnibus legislation addressing frontier model oversight or mandatory risk assessments. Executive actions under the current administration emphasize innovation, national security partnerships, and voluntary evaluations rather than prescriptive mandates. State-level enactments in California, New York, and Illinois on frontier AI transparency continue to fill the gap, while proposals for federal preemption or moratoriums on state rules have stalled. This environment leaves insufficient time for Senate confirmation processes, committee markups, or floor votes on major new requirements before the year-end deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 84.5% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 primarily due to the compressed legislative calendar and limited progress on broad regulatory frameworks. With only months remaining in 2026, Congress has advanced narrower measures on chatbot safeguards, digital replicas, and nonconsensual imagery but has not moved omnibus legislation addressing frontier model oversight or mandatory risk assessments. Executive actions under the current administration emphasize innovation, national security partnerships, and voluntary evaluations rather than prescriptive mandates. State-level enactments in California, New York, and Illinois on frontier AI transparency continue to fill the gap, while proposals for federal preemption or moratoriums on state rules have stalled. This environment leaves insufficient time for Senate confirmation processes, committee markups, or floor votes on major new requirements before the year-end deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 84.5% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 primarily due to the compressed legislative calendar and limited progress on broad regulatory frameworks. With only months remaining in 2026, Congress has advanced narrower measures on chatbot safeguards, digital replicas, and nonconsensual imagery but has not moved omnibus legislation addressing frontier model oversight or mandatory risk assessments. Executive actions under the current administration emphasize innovation, national security partnerships, and voluntary evaluations rather than prescriptive mandates. State-level enactments in California, New York, and Illinois on frontier AI transparency continue to fill the gap, while proposals for federal preemption or moratoriums on state rules have stalled. This environment leaves insufficient time for Senate confirmation processes, committee markups, or floor votes on major new requirements before the year-end deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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