Alibaba’s Qwen models have driven strong trader consensus at 77% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of August, reflecting consistent high performance in mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as AIME and internal coding-math evaluations. Recent Qwen3 releases, including hybrid thinking modes and agentic fine-tuning that improved scores on competition-level problems, have positioned the lab competitively against frontier closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI. With top ranks likely locked in by those labs, traders view Alibaba’s open-weight strengths and rapid iteration as the clearest path to the next slot. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could alter positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 78%
Google 17.9%
OpenAI 2.3%
Meta 1.1%
$40,885 Vol.
$40,885 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
78%
18%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
1%
Moonshot
1%
Anthropic
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba 78%
Google 17.9%
OpenAI 2.3%
Meta 1.1%
$40,885 Vol.
$40,885 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
$10,369 Vol.
78%
$7,705 Vol.
18%
OpenAI
$5,228 Vol.
2%
Meta
$1,357 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,380 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$977 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$972 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,147 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$909 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$969 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$578 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$1,114 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,009 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$904 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$730 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$790 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$579 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s Qwen models have driven strong trader consensus at 77% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of August, reflecting consistent high performance in mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as AIME and internal coding-math evaluations. Recent Qwen3 releases, including hybrid thinking modes and agentic fine-tuning that improved scores on competition-level problems, have positioned the lab competitively against frontier closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI. With top ranks likely locked in by those labs, traders view Alibaba’s open-weight strengths and rapid iteration as the clearest path to the next slot. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$40,885End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s Qwen models have driven strong trader consensus at 77% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of August, reflecting consistent high performance in mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as AIME and internal coding-math evaluations. Recent Qwen3 releases, including hybrid thinking modes and agentic fine-tuning that improved scores on competition-level problems, have positioned the lab competitively against frontier closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI. With top ranks likely locked in by those labs, traders view Alibaba’s open-weight strengths and rapid iteration as the clearest path to the next slot. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,885End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba’s Qwen models have driven strong trader consensus at 77% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of August, reflecting consistent high performance in mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as AIME and internal coding-math evaluations. Recent Qwen3 releases, including hybrid thinking modes and agentic fine-tuning that improved scores on competition-level problems, have positioned the lab competitively against frontier closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI. With top ranks likely locked in by those labs, traders view Alibaba’s open-weight strengths and rapid iteration as the clearest path to the next slot. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes before month-end remain the main swing factors that could alter positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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