**Strong Phase 3 momentum and sustained positive efficacy data underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that a skin cancer vaccine BLA reaches submission by mid-2027.** Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940), an individualized neoantigen therapy leveraging mRNA technology, delivered a consistent 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk at five-year follow-up from the Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial in resected high-risk melanoma. The pivotal INTerpath-001 Phase 3 study is fully enrolled, with interim readout expected later in 2026 that could trigger BLA filing under accelerated pathways. Analysts cite this timeline and the companies’ expanded oncology program as key drivers positioning the candidate for potential 2027 regulatory submission, while noting that typical biologics review cycles and any data maturation needs introduce remaining uncertainty for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated73% chance
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
73% chance
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong Phase 3 momentum and sustained positive efficacy data underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that a skin cancer vaccine BLA reaches submission by mid-2027.** Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940), an individualized neoantigen therapy leveraging mRNA technology, delivered a consistent 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk at five-year follow-up from the Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial in resected high-risk melanoma. The pivotal INTerpath-001 Phase 3 study is fully enrolled, with interim readout expected later in 2026 that could trigger BLA filing under accelerated pathways. Analysts cite this timeline and the companies’ expanded oncology program as key drivers positioning the candidate for potential 2027 regulatory submission, while noting that typical biologics review cycles and any data maturation needs introduce remaining uncertainty for traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,036End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong Phase 3 momentum and sustained positive efficacy data underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that a skin cancer vaccine BLA reaches submission by mid-2027.** Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940), an individualized neoantigen therapy leveraging mRNA technology, delivered a consistent 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk at five-year follow-up from the Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial in resected high-risk melanoma. The pivotal INTerpath-001 Phase 3 study is fully enrolled, with interim readout expected later in 2026 that could trigger BLA filing under accelerated pathways. Analysts cite this timeline and the companies’ expanded oncology program as key drivers positioning the candidate for potential 2027 regulatory submission, while noting that typical biologics review cycles and any data maturation needs introduce remaining uncertainty for traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,036End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong Phase 3 momentum and sustained positive efficacy data underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that a skin cancer vaccine BLA reaches submission by mid-2027.** Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940), an individualized neoantigen therapy leveraging mRNA technology, delivered a consistent 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk at five-year follow-up from the Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial in resected high-risk melanoma. The pivotal INTerpath-001 Phase 3 study is fully enrolled, with interim readout expected later in 2026 that could trigger BLA filing under accelerated pathways. Analysts cite this timeline and the companies’ expanded oncology program as key drivers positioning the candidate for potential 2027 regulatory submission, while noting that typical biologics review cycles and any data maturation needs introduce remaining uncertainty for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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