The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 10.0-or-greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics: no known fault segment is long enough to produce such an event under standard scaling laws relating rupture length, slip, and moment magnitude. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitude 10 quakes cannot occur, as they would require faults spanning much of the planet's circumference. Historical records confirm the maximum observed is 9.5, from the 1960 Valdivia megathrust in Chile, with all other great events (e.g., 1964 Alaska, 2004 Sumatra) falling below 9.3. In the narrow 17-month window remaining, these geological constraints leave virtually no realistic pathway to resolution in the affirmative.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 10.0-or-greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics: no known fault segment is long enough to produce such an event under standard scaling laws relating rupture length, slip, and moment magnitude. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitude 10 quakes cannot occur, as they would require faults spanning much of the planet's circumference. Historical records confirm the maximum observed is 9.5, from the 1960 Valdivia megathrust in Chile, with all other great events (e.g., 1964 Alaska, 2004 Sumatra) falling below 9.3. In the narrow 17-month window remaining, these geological constraints leave virtually no realistic pathway to resolution in the affirmative.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 10.0-or-greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics: no known fault segment is long enough to produce such an event under standard scaling laws relating rupture length, slip, and moment magnitude. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitude 10 quakes cannot occur, as they would require faults spanning much of the planet's circumference. Historical records confirm the maximum observed is 9.5, from the 1960 Valdivia megathrust in Chile, with all other great events (e.g., 1964 Alaska, 2004 Sumatra) falling below 9.3. In the narrow 17-month window remaining, these geological constraints leave virtually no realistic pathway to resolution in the affirmative.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 10.0-or-greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics: no known fault segment is long enough to produce such an event under standard scaling laws relating rupture length, slip, and moment magnitude. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitude 10 quakes cannot occur, as they would require faults spanning much of the planet's circumference. Historical records confirm the maximum observed is 9.5, from the 1960 Valdivia megathrust in Chile, with all other great events (e.g., 1964 Alaska, 2004 Sumatra) falling below 9.3. In the narrow 17-month window remaining, these geological constraints leave virtually no realistic pathway to resolution in the affirmative.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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