SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest in history after raising roughly $75 billion, anchors trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the year's biggest listing by market cap. The offering followed its February merger incorporating xAI, boosting the combined entity's scale through Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure amid elevated Treasury yields and strong institutional demand. Anthropic's 26.4% odds reflect its confidential S-1 filing and planned September-October debut at a ~$965 billion post-money valuation after a recent $65 billion raise, though trailing SpaceX's realized size. xAI's 25.5% share captures residual uncertainty around post-merger attribution, while OpenAI and other candidates remain below 0.5% given smaller reported valuations near $850 billion and later timelines. These probabilities embed skin-in-the-game sentiment on IPO sequencing, deal integration, and AI-driven multiples versus historical benchmarks like Aramco.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX 71%
Anthropic 26.4%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,343,703 Vol.
$5,343,703 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
71%
Anthropic
26%
OpenAI
<1%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 71%
Anthropic 26.4%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,343,703 Vol.
$5,343,703 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$706,038 Vol.
71%
Anthropic
$753,756 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$468,275 Vol.
<1%
Discord
$176,728 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$208,389 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$128,175 Vol.
<1%
Kraken
$654,953 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$580,615 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$316,150 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$633,436 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$104,136 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$613,052 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest in history after raising roughly $75 billion, anchors trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the year's biggest listing by market cap. The offering followed its February merger incorporating xAI, boosting the combined entity's scale through Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure amid elevated Treasury yields and strong institutional demand. Anthropic's 26.4% odds reflect its confidential S-1 filing and planned September-October debut at a ~$965 billion post-money valuation after a recent $65 billion raise, though trailing SpaceX's realized size. xAI's 25.5% share captures residual uncertainty around post-merger attribution, while OpenAI and other candidates remain below 0.5% given smaller reported valuations near $850 billion and later timelines. These probabilities embed skin-in-the-game sentiment on IPO sequencing, deal integration, and AI-driven multiples versus historical benchmarks like Aramco.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$5,343,703End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest in history after raising roughly $75 billion, anchors trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the year's biggest listing by market cap. The offering followed its February merger incorporating xAI, boosting the combined entity's scale through Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure amid elevated Treasury yields and strong institutional demand. Anthropic's 26.4% odds reflect its confidential S-1 filing and planned September-October debut at a ~$965 billion post-money valuation after a recent $65 billion raise, though trailing SpaceX's realized size. xAI's 25.5% share captures residual uncertainty around post-merger attribution, while OpenAI and other candidates remain below 0.5% given smaller reported valuations near $850 billion and later timelines. These probabilities embed skin-in-the-game sentiment on IPO sequencing, deal integration, and AI-driven multiples versus historical benchmarks like Aramco.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$5,343,703End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest in history after raising roughly $75 billion, anchors trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the year's biggest listing by market cap. The offering followed its February merger incorporating xAI, boosting the combined entity's scale through Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure amid elevated Treasury yields and strong institutional demand. Anthropic's 26.4% odds reflect its confidential S-1 filing and planned September-October debut at a ~$965 billion post-money valuation after a recent $65 billion raise, though trailing SpaceX's realized size. xAI's 25.5% share captures residual uncertainty around post-merger attribution, while OpenAI and other candidates remain below 0.5% given smaller reported valuations near $850 billion and later timelines. These probabilities embed skin-in-the-game sentiment on IPO sequencing, deal integration, and AI-driven multiples versus historical benchmarks like Aramco.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions