Trader consensus favors below-average September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding the leading 46% implied probability against the 321 mm climatological normal (1991-2020). Early-month observations show subdued accumulation, with only about 28 mm recorded in the first few days amid light monsoon showers and limited tropical cyclone influence. Current forecast guidance points to continued moderate conditions under northeast monsoon flow and scattered squalls, reducing near-term risk of extreme events. Late-month variability from potential South China Sea systems remains the primary uncertainty, as steering patterns and intensification could still push totals higher if cyclones track nearer the territory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 46%
275-300mm 16%
325-350mm 10%
300-325mm 9.4%
$10,073 Vol.
$10,073 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
46%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
10%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
4%
400-450mm
5%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
2%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 46%
275-300mm 16%
325-350mm 10%
300-325mm 9.4%
$10,073 Vol.
$10,073 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$7,907 Vol.
46%
275-300mm
$283 Vol.
16%
300-325mm
$407 Vol.
7%
325-350mm
$206 Vol.
10%
350-375mm
$195 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$194 Vol.
4%
400-450mm
$210 Vol.
5%
450-500mm
$235 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$216 Vol.
2%
550mm+
$223 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors below-average September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding the leading 46% implied probability against the 321 mm climatological normal (1991-2020). Early-month observations show subdued accumulation, with only about 28 mm recorded in the first few days amid light monsoon showers and limited tropical cyclone influence. Current forecast guidance points to continued moderate conditions under northeast monsoon flow and scattered squalls, reducing near-term risk of extreme events. Late-month variability from potential South China Sea systems remains the primary uncertainty, as steering patterns and intensification could still push totals higher if cyclones track nearer the territory.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$10,073End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors below-average September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding the leading 46% implied probability against the 321 mm climatological normal (1991-2020). Early-month observations show subdued accumulation, with only about 28 mm recorded in the first few days amid light monsoon showers and limited tropical cyclone influence. Current forecast guidance points to continued moderate conditions under northeast monsoon flow and scattered squalls, reducing near-term risk of extreme events. Late-month variability from potential South China Sea systems remains the primary uncertainty, as steering patterns and intensification could still push totals higher if cyclones track nearer the territory.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,073End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors below-average September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding the leading 46% implied probability against the 321 mm climatological normal (1991-2020). Early-month observations show subdued accumulation, with only about 28 mm recorded in the first few days amid light monsoon showers and limited tropical cyclone influence. Current forecast guidance points to continued moderate conditions under northeast monsoon flow and scattered squalls, reducing near-term risk of extreme events. Late-month variability from potential South China Sea systems remains the primary uncertainty, as steering patterns and intensification could still push totals higher if cyclones track nearer the territory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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