SpaceX’s sustained high launch cadence, driven by ongoing Starlink deployments from both Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral alongside the confirmed Crew-13 mission and O3b mPOWER payload, underpins trader sentiment favoring 12–13 total launches in September 2026. Multiple Falcon 9 missions are already manifested early in the month, with additional Starlink flights and a possible Tranche 1 military payload adding to the count, while Starship Flight 14 remains a wildcard with a NET-September target that could slip due to recovery operations and testing priorities. The closely matched probabilities around 12 and 13 reflect uncertainty over weather windows, regulatory clearances, and whether extra Starlink or Starship attempts materialize before month-end, consistent with SpaceX’s recent pattern of rapid Falcon 9 reuse and gradual Starship ramp-up.