Google's Gemini models, particularly variants leveraging Deep Think reasoning modes, anchor trader consensus at 78% implied probability for second place on Text Arena's math category by end of August. This stems from sustained frontier-level performance on competition math and reasoning benchmarks, including gold-medal IMO results and strong showings on platforms tracking Elo-style votes across math prompts. Anthropic's Claude variants currently lead overall math arenas per recent leaderboards, creating a narrow window where Google's consistent benchmark gains and large-context advantages position it as the most credible challenger. Low probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others reflect fewer recent verifiable math-specific releases or leaderboard shifts in the category. With resolution approaching, any late-August model updates or arena vote surges could still adjust the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 78%
Alibaba 12.0%
OpenAI 4.5%
Anthropic 4.2%
$61,466 Vol.
$61,466 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
78%
Alibaba
12%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
4%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
ByteDance
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 78%
Alibaba 12.0%
OpenAI 4.5%
Anthropic 4.2%
$61,466 Vol.
$61,466 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
$22,992 Vol.
78%
Alibaba
$9,975 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$2,264 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$8,328 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$1,783 Vol.
1%
Meta
$2,074 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,610 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,397 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,696 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$804 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,415 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$500 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$709 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$556 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$554 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$915 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$577 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$667 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models, particularly variants leveraging Deep Think reasoning modes, anchor trader consensus at 78% implied probability for second place on Text Arena's math category by end of August. This stems from sustained frontier-level performance on competition math and reasoning benchmarks, including gold-medal IMO results and strong showings on platforms tracking Elo-style votes across math prompts. Anthropic's Claude variants currently lead overall math arenas per recent leaderboards, creating a narrow window where Google's consistent benchmark gains and large-context advantages position it as the most credible challenger. Low probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others reflect fewer recent verifiable math-specific releases or leaderboard shifts in the category. With resolution approaching, any late-August model updates or arena vote surges could still adjust the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ET
Volume
$61,466End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models, particularly variants leveraging Deep Think reasoning modes, anchor trader consensus at 78% implied probability for second place on Text Arena's math category by end of August. This stems from sustained frontier-level performance on competition math and reasoning benchmarks, including gold-medal IMO results and strong showings on platforms tracking Elo-style votes across math prompts. Anthropic's Claude variants currently lead overall math arenas per recent leaderboards, creating a narrow window where Google's consistent benchmark gains and large-context advantages position it as the most credible challenger. Low probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others reflect fewer recent verifiable math-specific releases or leaderboard shifts in the category. With resolution approaching, any late-August model updates or arena vote surges could still adjust the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$61,466End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini models, particularly variants leveraging Deep Think reasoning modes, anchor trader consensus at 78% implied probability for second place on Text Arena's math category by end of August. This stems from sustained frontier-level performance on competition math and reasoning benchmarks, including gold-medal IMO results and strong showings on platforms tracking Elo-style votes across math prompts. Anthropic's Claude variants currently lead overall math arenas per recent leaderboards, creating a narrow window where Google's consistent benchmark gains and large-context advantages position it as the most credible challenger. Low probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others reflect fewer recent verifiable math-specific releases or leaderboard shifts in the category. With resolution approaching, any late-August model updates or arena vote surges could still adjust the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions