Braeden Caley’s commanding position in the North Vancouver—Capilano by-election market stems from the riding’s consistent Liberal dominance, most recently delivering 59.8 percent of the vote in 2025, combined with his July 18 nomination as the party’s official candidate. As former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Mark Carney, Caley benefits from direct ties to the current government and a high-profile July 29 campaign appearance by Carney in the riding. Conservative candidate Stephen Curran trails significantly, consistent with the party’s prior 33.7 percent showing. With the August 31 vote date approaching, traders appear to view the outcome as largely settled absent any major late developments such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or abrupt shift in national polling that could alter local momentum.