Monique Taylor holds the strongest position among candidates in the September 3 by-election for the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek seat, vacated by retiring Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden, reflecting her prior service as Hamilton Mountain MPP, east-end Hamilton roots, and a late-August poll showing the NDP candidate at 38 percent voter intention. Jeff Beattie, the Progressive Conservative nominee and sitting city councillor, trails closely in both market pricing and polling at 34 percent, consistent with the party’s 2025 result in the riding amid limited campaign time. Lower probabilities for the Liberal, Green, and minor-party contenders align with their weaker historical performance and the short writ period focused on the three main parties. Advance voting is underway, and a recent candidates’ debate highlighted local issues such as housing and environmental concerns without shifting the narrow NDP-Conservative contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner
Monique Taylor 62%
Jeff Beattie 35%
Heino Doessing 6%
Heather Curnew <1%
$33,822 Vol.
$33,822 Vol.
Monique Taylor
62%
Jeff Beattie
35%
Heino Doessing
6%
Heather Curnew
<1%
Wieslawa Derlatka
<1%
Pascale Marchand
<1%
Monique Taylor 62%
Jeff Beattie 35%
Heino Doessing 6%
Heather Curnew <1%
$33,822 Vol.
$33,822 Vol.
Monique Taylor
62%
Jeff Beattie
35%
Heino Doessing
6%
Heather Curnew
<1%
Wieslawa Derlatka
<1%
Pascale Marchand
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Monique Taylor holds the strongest position among candidates in the September 3 by-election for the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek seat, vacated by retiring Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden, reflecting her prior service as Hamilton Mountain MPP, east-end Hamilton roots, and a late-August poll showing the NDP candidate at 38 percent voter intention. Jeff Beattie, the Progressive Conservative nominee and sitting city councillor, trails closely in both market pricing and polling at 34 percent, consistent with the party’s 2025 result in the riding amid limited campaign time. Lower probabilities for the Liberal, Green, and minor-party contenders align with their weaker historical performance and the short writ period focused on the three main parties. Advance voting is underway, and a recent candidates’ debate highlighted local issues such as housing and environmental concerns without shifting the narrow NDP-Conservative contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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