**Stephen Skoly holds a clear edge in the Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, scheduled for September 9, 2026, with traders pricing him as the consensus favorite.** Skoly, an East Greenwich oral surgeon and longtime Rhode Island resident, secured the state GOP endorsement at the June 2026 convention after the party’s nominating committee recommended him over challenger Victor Mellor. Endorsed candidates receive top ballot placement, a structural advantage in a low-turnout primary. Mellor, a Woonsocket native, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and self-funded candidate who returned to the state after decades in Florida, has poured roughly $3 million into the race—far outpacing Skoly’s fundraising—but faces headwinds from his participation in the January 6, 2021, Capitol march and his mid-2026 registration as a foreign agent tied to Cuba outreach. Early voting began August 20, and a televised debate is set for September 4. These elements, combined with Skoly’s local profile and party backing, explain the current implied probabilities in the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
Stephen Skoly
69%
Victor Mellor
30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
Stephen Skoly
$2,054 Vol.
69%
Victor Mellor
$3,262 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Stephen Skoly holds a clear edge in the Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, scheduled for September 9, 2026, with traders pricing him as the consensus favorite.**
Skoly, an East Greenwich oral surgeon and longtime Rhode Island resident, secured the state GOP endorsement at the June 2026 convention after the party’s nominating committee recommended him over challenger Victor Mellor. Endorsed candidates receive top ballot placement, a structural advantage in a low-turnout primary. Mellor, a Woonsocket native, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and self-funded candidate who returned to the state after decades in Florida, has poured roughly $3 million into the race—far outpacing Skoly’s fundraising—but faces headwinds from his participation in the January 6, 2021, Capitol march and his mid-2026 registration as a foreign agent tied to Cuba outreach.
Early voting began August 20, and a televised debate is set for September 4. These elements, combined with Skoly’s local profile and party backing, explain the current implied probabilities in the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volume
$5,316End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Stephen Skoly holds a clear edge in the Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, scheduled for September 9, 2026, with traders pricing him as the consensus favorite.**
Skoly, an East Greenwich oral surgeon and longtime Rhode Island resident, secured the state GOP endorsement at the June 2026 convention after the party’s nominating committee recommended him over challenger Victor Mellor. Endorsed candidates receive top ballot placement, a structural advantage in a low-turnout primary. Mellor, a Woonsocket native, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and self-funded candidate who returned to the state after decades in Florida, has poured roughly $3 million into the race—far outpacing Skoly’s fundraising—but faces headwinds from his participation in the January 6, 2021, Capitol march and his mid-2026 registration as a foreign agent tied to Cuba outreach.
Early voting began August 20, and a televised debate is set for September 4. These elements, combined with Skoly’s local profile and party backing, explain the current implied probabilities in the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,316End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Stephen Skoly holds a clear edge in the Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, scheduled for September 9, 2026, with traders pricing him as the consensus favorite.** Skoly, an East Greenwich oral surgeon and longtime Rhode Island resident, secured the state GOP endorsement at the June 2026 convention after the party’s nominating committee recommended him over challenger Victor Mellor. Endorsed candidates receive top ballot placement, a structural advantage in a low-turnout primary. Mellor, a Woonsocket native, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and self-funded candidate who returned to the state after decades in Florida, has poured roughly $3 million into the race—far outpacing Skoly’s fundraising—but faces headwinds from his participation in the January 6, 2021, Capitol march and his mid-2026 registration as a foreign agent tied to Cuba outreach. Early voting began August 20, and a televised debate is set for September 4. These elements, combined with Skoly’s local profile and party backing, explain the current implied probabilities in the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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