**Collin County remains a key suburban battleground in the closely contested 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton.** The county, historically Republican and tied to Paxton’s early political career, has shown shifting dynamics with strong Democratic organizing and turnout efforts among suburban and Latino voters. Recent polls rate the statewide contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Talarico’s significant fundraising edge—over $68 million raised versus Paxton’s roughly $9 million—and heavy advertising presence, while Paxton benefits from Republican base mobilization and Trump endorsement momentum from the primary. A July ProPublica/Texas Tribune report on Paxton’s long-term voting address in Collin County drew scrutiny, though similar questions arose about Talarico’s registration. Talarico’s large Collin County rally drew thousands, signaling competitive ground-game activity. With early voting set for October 19–30 and the November 3 election approaching, the race’s tightness in this county stems from demographic changes, negative campaigning on both sides, and the broader statewide margin remaining narrow enough that local factors like turnout and minor-party votes could influence the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
59%
Ken Paxton (R)
34%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
$1,188 Vol.
59%
Ken Paxton (R)
$860 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.**Collin County remains a key suburban battleground in the closely contested 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton.** The county, historically Republican and tied to Paxton’s early political career, has shown shifting dynamics with strong Democratic organizing and turnout efforts among suburban and Latino voters. Recent polls rate the statewide contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Talarico’s significant fundraising edge—over $68 million raised versus Paxton’s roughly $9 million—and heavy advertising presence, while Paxton benefits from Republican base mobilization and Trump endorsement momentum from the primary.
A July ProPublica/Texas Tribune report on Paxton’s long-term voting address in Collin County drew scrutiny, though similar questions arose about Talarico’s registration. Talarico’s large Collin County rally drew thousands, signaling competitive ground-game activity. With early voting set for October 19–30 and the November 3 election approaching, the race’s tightness in this county stems from demographic changes, negative campaigning on both sides, and the broader statewide margin remaining narrow enough that local factors like turnout and minor-party votes could influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Volume
$2,048End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.**Collin County remains a key suburban battleground in the closely contested 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton.** The county, historically Republican and tied to Paxton’s early political career, has shown shifting dynamics with strong Democratic organizing and turnout efforts among suburban and Latino voters. Recent polls rate the statewide contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Talarico’s significant fundraising edge—over $68 million raised versus Paxton’s roughly $9 million—and heavy advertising presence, while Paxton benefits from Republican base mobilization and Trump endorsement momentum from the primary.
A July ProPublica/Texas Tribune report on Paxton’s long-term voting address in Collin County drew scrutiny, though similar questions arose about Talarico’s registration. Talarico’s large Collin County rally drew thousands, signaling competitive ground-game activity. With early voting set for October 19–30 and the November 3 election approaching, the race’s tightness in this county stems from demographic changes, negative campaigning on both sides, and the broader statewide margin remaining narrow enough that local factors like turnout and minor-party votes could influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
Volume
$2,048End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Collin County remains a key suburban battleground in the closely contested 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton.** The county, historically Republican and tied to Paxton’s early political career, has shown shifting dynamics with strong Democratic organizing and turnout efforts among suburban and Latino voters. Recent polls rate the statewide contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Talarico’s significant fundraising edge—over $68 million raised versus Paxton’s roughly $9 million—and heavy advertising presence, while Paxton benefits from Republican base mobilization and Trump endorsement momentum from the primary. A July ProPublica/Texas Tribune report on Paxton’s long-term voting address in Collin County drew scrutiny, though similar questions arose about Talarico’s registration. Talarico’s large Collin County rally drew thousands, signaling competitive ground-game activity. With early voting set for October 19–30 and the November 3 election approaching, the race’s tightness in this county stems from demographic changes, negative campaigning on both sides, and the broader statewide margin remaining narrow enough that local factors like turnout and minor-party votes could influence the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions