Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation to 3.12% in July 2026, the lowest since 2020, alongside core readings near 3.9%, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.5-3.99% range for full-year 2026 at 34.3% implied probability. Analyst consensus now clusters around 4.0-4.1% for year-end or average inflation, reflecting downward revisions tied to subdued domestic demand and peso stability, even as services prices and wage pressures remain sticky. Banco de México's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% signals caution, with convergence to the 3% target eyed only in late 2027. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI prints, labor market data, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy or trade dynamics that could alter the disinflation path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 34.4%
3.00% to 3.49% 22.2%
4.00% to 4.49% 16%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$61,313 Vol.
$61,313 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
22%
3.50% to 3.99%
34%
4.00% to 4.49%
16%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
7%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 34.4%
3.00% to 3.49% 22.2%
4.00% to 4.49% 16%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$61,313 Vol.
$61,313 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$1,053 Vol.
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,887 Vol.
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
$27,435 Vol.
22%
3.50% to 3.99%
$3,772 Vol.
34%
4.00% to 4.49%
$10,677 Vol.
16%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,745 Vol.
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,439 Vol.
7%
5.50%+
$6,305 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation to 3.12% in July 2026, the lowest since 2020, alongside core readings near 3.9%, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.5-3.99% range for full-year 2026 at 34.3% implied probability. Analyst consensus now clusters around 4.0-4.1% for year-end or average inflation, reflecting downward revisions tied to subdued domestic demand and peso stability, even as services prices and wage pressures remain sticky. Banco de México's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% signals caution, with convergence to the 3% target eyed only in late 2027. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI prints, labor market data, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy or trade dynamics that could alter the disinflation path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$61,313End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation to 3.12% in July 2026, the lowest since 2020, alongside core readings near 3.9%, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.5-3.99% range for full-year 2026 at 34.3% implied probability. Analyst consensus now clusters around 4.0-4.1% for year-end or average inflation, reflecting downward revisions tied to subdued domestic demand and peso stability, even as services prices and wage pressures remain sticky. Banco de México's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% signals caution, with convergence to the 3% target eyed only in late 2027. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI prints, labor market data, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy or trade dynamics that could alter the disinflation path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$61,313End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation to 3.12% in July 2026, the lowest since 2020, alongside core readings near 3.9%, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.5-3.99% range for full-year 2026 at 34.3% implied probability. Analyst consensus now clusters around 4.0-4.1% for year-end or average inflation, reflecting downward revisions tied to subdued domestic demand and peso stability, even as services prices and wage pressures remain sticky. Banco de México's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% signals caution, with convergence to the 3% target eyed only in late 2027. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI prints, labor market data, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy or trade dynamics that could alter the disinflation path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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