The brief remaining window through August 31, combined with the statistical rarity of megaquakes (typically magnitude 8.5+ events on the moment magnitude scale), underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS records show 2026 has produced multiple magnitude 7+ quakes, including a 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, yet none have approached megaquake thresholds, consistent with global averages of roughly one magnitude 8+ event every 1–2 years. No current monitoring indicators from agencies like the USGS signal elevated foreshock activity or stress transfer that would raise near-term odds. A sudden great subduction-zone rupture remains possible in principle but would represent a low-probability outlier against historical frequency and the absence of precursors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by August 31?
Megaquake by August 31?
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief remaining window through August 31, combined with the statistical rarity of megaquakes (typically magnitude 8.5+ events on the moment magnitude scale), underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS records show 2026 has produced multiple magnitude 7+ quakes, including a 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, yet none have approached megaquake thresholds, consistent with global averages of roughly one magnitude 8+ event every 1–2 years. No current monitoring indicators from agencies like the USGS signal elevated foreshock activity or stress transfer that would raise near-term odds. A sudden great subduction-zone rupture remains possible in principle but would represent a low-probability outlier against historical frequency and the absence of precursors.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$3,461End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief remaining window through August 31, combined with the statistical rarity of megaquakes (typically magnitude 8.5+ events on the moment magnitude scale), underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS records show 2026 has produced multiple magnitude 7+ quakes, including a 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, yet none have approached megaquake thresholds, consistent with global averages of roughly one magnitude 8+ event every 1–2 years. No current monitoring indicators from agencies like the USGS signal elevated foreshock activity or stress transfer that would raise near-term odds. A sudden great subduction-zone rupture remains possible in principle but would represent a low-probability outlier against historical frequency and the absence of precursors.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$3,461End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief remaining window through August 31, combined with the statistical rarity of megaquakes (typically magnitude 8.5+ events on the moment magnitude scale), underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS records show 2026 has produced multiple magnitude 7+ quakes, including a 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, yet none have approached megaquake thresholds, consistent with global averages of roughly one magnitude 8+ event every 1–2 years. No current monitoring indicators from agencies like the USGS signal elevated foreshock activity or stress transfer that would raise near-term odds. A sudden great subduction-zone rupture remains possible in principle but would represent a low-probability outlier against historical frequency and the absence of precursors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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