Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum of 23°C for Tokyo on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with light winds, limiting radiative cooling and aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability. Late-summer climatology shows typical overnight lows near 23–24°C, moderated by the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth and by expected humidity levels near 80–90%. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather similarly centers on 22–25°C ranges, with the 23°C and 25°C bins capturing residual uncertainty from minor forecast shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns. These data reinforce trader focus on the narrow 23–25°C window as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
24°C 52%
23°C 21%
25°C 19%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
24%
24°C
52%
25°C
18%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 52%
23°C 21%
25°C 19%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$12 Vol.
1%
21°C
$76 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$648 Vol.
24%
24°C
$264 Vol.
52%
25°C
$942 Vol.
18%
26°C
$61 Vol.
3%
27°C
$73 Vol.
1%
28°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$83 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum of 23°C for Tokyo on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with light winds, limiting radiative cooling and aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability. Late-summer climatology shows typical overnight lows near 23–24°C, moderated by the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth and by expected humidity levels near 80–90%. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather similarly centers on 22–25°C ranges, with the 23°C and 25°C bins capturing residual uncertainty from minor forecast shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns. These data reinforce trader focus on the narrow 23–25°C window as resolution nears.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$2,233End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum of 23°C for Tokyo on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with light winds, limiting radiative cooling and aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability. Late-summer climatology shows typical overnight lows near 23–24°C, moderated by the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth and by expected humidity levels near 80–90%. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather similarly centers on 22–25°C ranges, with the 23°C and 25°C bins capturing residual uncertainty from minor forecast shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns. These data reinforce trader focus on the narrow 23–25°C window as resolution nears.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,233End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum of 23°C for Tokyo on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with light winds, limiting radiative cooling and aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability. Late-summer climatology shows typical overnight lows near 23–24°C, moderated by the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth and by expected humidity levels near 80–90%. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather similarly centers on 22–25°C ranges, with the 23°C and 25°C bins capturing residual uncertainty from minor forecast shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns. These data reinforce trader focus on the narrow 23–25°C window as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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