**Current forecast models and overnight observations point to a low temperature near the long-term September 7 climatological average of 56.1°F for San Francisco, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for the 56-57°F bin.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under moderate high pressure, combined with typical marine layer influence and light winds, have kept early-morning readings in the upper 50s to low 60s across official stations, consistent with National Weather Service guidance and recent METAR trends. This aligns with the historical distribution, where lows on this date have clustered tightly around 56°F in most years since 1991, with rare excursions below 52°F only under exceptional offshore flow. The dominant trader consensus reflects high confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions persisting through the final hours of the night, though a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or delayed marine intrusion could nudge readings slightly higher while an unexpected clearing and offshore wind shift remains the primary low-probability pathway to cooler outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
56-57°F 99.4%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$1,716 Vol.
$1,716 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
99%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
56-57°F 99.4%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$1,716 Vol.
$1,716 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
$65 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$297 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$50 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$65 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$75 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$609 Vol.
99%
58-59°F
$131 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$125 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$25 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$105 Vol.
<1%
66°F or higher
$170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models and overnight observations point to a low temperature near the long-term September 7 climatological average of 56.1°F for San Francisco, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for the 56-57°F bin.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under moderate high pressure, combined with typical marine layer influence and light winds, have kept early-morning readings in the upper 50s to low 60s across official stations, consistent with National Weather Service guidance and recent METAR trends. This aligns with the historical distribution, where lows on this date have clustered tightly around 56°F in most years since 1991, with rare excursions below 52°F only under exceptional offshore flow. The dominant trader consensus reflects high confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions persisting through the final hours of the night, though a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or delayed marine intrusion could nudge readings slightly higher while an unexpected clearing and offshore wind shift remains the primary low-probability pathway to cooler outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,716End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models and overnight observations point to a low temperature near the long-term September 7 climatological average of 56.1°F for San Francisco, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for the 56-57°F bin.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under moderate high pressure, combined with typical marine layer influence and light winds, have kept early-morning readings in the upper 50s to low 60s across official stations, consistent with National Weather Service guidance and recent METAR trends. This aligns with the historical distribution, where lows on this date have clustered tightly around 56°F in most years since 1991, with rare excursions below 52°F only under exceptional offshore flow. The dominant trader consensus reflects high confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions persisting through the final hours of the night, though a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or delayed marine intrusion could nudge readings slightly higher while an unexpected clearing and offshore wind shift remains the primary low-probability pathway to cooler outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,716End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models and overnight observations point to a low temperature near the long-term September 7 climatological average of 56.1°F for San Francisco, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for the 56-57°F bin.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under moderate high pressure, combined with typical marine layer influence and light winds, have kept early-morning readings in the upper 50s to low 60s across official stations, consistent with National Weather Service guidance and recent METAR trends. This aligns with the historical distribution, where lows on this date have clustered tightly around 56°F in most years since 1991, with rare excursions below 52°F only under exceptional offshore flow. The dominant trader consensus reflects high confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions persisting through the final hours of the night, though a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or delayed marine intrusion could nudge readings slightly higher while an unexpected clearing and offshore wind shift remains the primary low-probability pathway to cooler outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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