Recent forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15 likely falling to 20–21°C overnight, driven by a shift to cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of possible afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clear-sky scenarios typical in mid-August, when climatological lows average 15–18°C. The strong market weighting toward 22°C or below reflects model consensus on this range, with limited divergence among runs from agencies like Météo-France. Key resolution factors include official hourly observations from Paris stations, where any sustained drop below 22°C would confirm the outcome; updated model guidance on wind patterns or cloud thickness could refine this assessment before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
22°C or below 75%
23°C 22%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
75%
23°C
22%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
22°C or below 75%
23°C 22%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$2,781 Vol.
75%
23°C
$1,862 Vol.
22%
24°C
$619 Vol.
1%
25°C
$464 Vol.
1%
26°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$426 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$377 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15 likely falling to 20–21°C overnight, driven by a shift to cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of possible afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clear-sky scenarios typical in mid-August, when climatological lows average 15–18°C. The strong market weighting toward 22°C or below reflects model consensus on this range, with limited divergence among runs from agencies like Météo-France. Key resolution factors include official hourly observations from Paris stations, where any sustained drop below 22°C would confirm the outcome; updated model guidance on wind patterns or cloud thickness could refine this assessment before market close.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$8,189End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15 likely falling to 20–21°C overnight, driven by a shift to cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of possible afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clear-sky scenarios typical in mid-August, when climatological lows average 15–18°C. The strong market weighting toward 22°C or below reflects model consensus on this range, with limited divergence among runs from agencies like Météo-France. Key resolution factors include official hourly observations from Paris stations, where any sustained drop below 22°C would confirm the outcome; updated model guidance on wind patterns or cloud thickness could refine this assessment before market close.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,189End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15 likely falling to 20–21°C overnight, driven by a shift to cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of possible afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clear-sky scenarios typical in mid-August, when climatological lows average 15–18°C. The strong market weighting toward 22°C or below reflects model consensus on this range, with limited divergence among runs from agencies like Météo-France. Key resolution factors include official hourly observations from Paris stations, where any sustained drop below 22°C would confirm the outcome; updated model guidance on wind patterns or cloud thickness could refine this assessment before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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