Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble consensus project a minimum temperature in the mid-50s for New York City on September 24, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air and clear to partly cloudy skies promoting overnight radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading 54-55°F outcome at 39% implied probability, while 52-53°F and 56-57°F brackets capture the typical forecast spread. Persistent high pressure and seasonal transition from summer warmth further support these ranges over warmer or colder extremes, consistent with historical late-September climatology. Traders will monitor any final model updates or local mesonet observations through the 23rd for shifts in boundary-layer conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 24?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 24?
54-55°F 39%
66°F or higher 26%
56-57°F 26%
47°F or below 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
24%
48-49°F
23%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
26%
54-55°F 39%
66°F or higher 26%
56-57°F 26%
47°F or below 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
24%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
23%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
24%
52-53°F
$44 Vol.
26%
54-55°F
$81 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$170 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
6%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
2%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble consensus project a minimum temperature in the mid-50s for New York City on September 24, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air and clear to partly cloudy skies promoting overnight radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading 54-55°F outcome at 39% implied probability, while 52-53°F and 56-57°F brackets capture the typical forecast spread. Persistent high pressure and seasonal transition from summer warmth further support these ranges over warmer or colder extremes, consistent with historical late-September climatology. Traders will monitor any final model updates or local mesonet observations through the 23rd for shifts in boundary-layer conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$300End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble consensus project a minimum temperature in the mid-50s for New York City on September 24, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air and clear to partly cloudy skies promoting overnight radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading 54-55°F outcome at 39% implied probability, while 52-53°F and 56-57°F brackets capture the typical forecast spread. Persistent high pressure and seasonal transition from summer warmth further support these ranges over warmer or colder extremes, consistent with historical late-September climatology. Traders will monitor any final model updates or local mesonet observations through the 23rd for shifts in boundary-layer conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$300End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble consensus project a minimum temperature in the mid-50s for New York City on September 24, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air and clear to partly cloudy skies promoting overnight radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading 54-55°F outcome at 39% implied probability, while 52-53°F and 56-57°F brackets capture the typical forecast spread. Persistent high pressure and seasonal transition from summer warmth further support these ranges over warmer or colder extremes, consistent with historical late-September climatology. Traders will monitor any final model updates or local mesonet observations through the 23rd for shifts in boundary-layer conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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