**Cooler northwest airflow and persistent cloud cover are positioning Moscow’s September 7 low near 9 °C, the clear market favorite at 76 % implied probability.** Official forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and international models show overnight temperatures falling to roughly 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds of 7–12 m/s. These conditions suppress radiational cooling yet keep the air mass below seasonal norms, aligning with the 9.5 °C climatological average low for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with only modest spread supporting the secondary 8 °C outcome at 23.5 %. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance and historical analogs heavily, as probabilities for sub-7 °C readings remain under 3 %.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 7?
9°C 99%
8°C 3%
7°C 1%
3°C or below <1%
$4,323 Vol.
$4,323 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
99%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
9°C 99%
8°C 3%
7°C 1%
3°C or below <1%
$4,323 Vol.
$4,323 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
3°C or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$364 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$324 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$439 Vol.
1%
8°C
$581 Vol.
3%
9°C
$693 Vol.
99%
10°C
$729 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$357 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler northwest airflow and persistent cloud cover are positioning Moscow’s September 7 low near 9 °C, the clear market favorite at 76 % implied probability.** Official forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and international models show overnight temperatures falling to roughly 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds of 7–12 m/s. These conditions suppress radiational cooling yet keep the air mass below seasonal norms, aligning with the 9.5 °C climatological average low for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with only modest spread supporting the secondary 8 °C outcome at 23.5 %. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance and historical analogs heavily, as probabilities for sub-7 °C readings remain under 3 %.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$4,323End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler northwest airflow and persistent cloud cover are positioning Moscow’s September 7 low near 9 °C, the clear market favorite at 76 % implied probability.** Official forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and international models show overnight temperatures falling to roughly 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds of 7–12 m/s. These conditions suppress radiational cooling yet keep the air mass below seasonal norms, aligning with the 9.5 °C climatological average low for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with only modest spread supporting the secondary 8 °C outcome at 23.5 %. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance and historical analogs heavily, as probabilities for sub-7 °C readings remain under 3 %.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,323End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cooler northwest airflow and persistent cloud cover are positioning Moscow’s September 7 low near 9 °C, the clear market favorite at 76 % implied probability.** Official forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and international models show overnight temperatures falling to roughly 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds of 7–12 m/s. These conditions suppress radiational cooling yet keep the air mass below seasonal norms, aligning with the 9.5 °C climatological average low for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with only modest spread supporting the secondary 8 °C outcome at 23.5 %. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance and historical analogs heavily, as probabilities for sub-7 °C readings remain under 3 %.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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