Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and other models point to overnight lows in Moscow around 12–16°C on August 21, 2026, with variable cloud cover, scattered rain, and southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s. These conditions limit strong radiative cooling while allowing modest advection of cooler air, keeping the minimum from dropping sharply below recent climatological norms for late August. The market's elevated pricing on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on model runs showing localized cooling from heavier nocturnal showers or clearer patches enabling greater heat loss to space, contrasted with the clustered probabilities around 11–16°C that align with ensemble consensus emphasizing cloud-trapped warmth and moderate mixing. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry negligible weight because persistent moisture and unsettled flow suppress daytime heat retention into the night. Updated model guidance and real-time observations of precipitation timing will likely refine these spreads before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
9°C or below 86%
11°C 61%
10°C 58%
12°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
86%
10°C
58%
11°C
61%
12°C
35%
13°C
35%
14°C
35%
15°C
34%
16°C
33%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
9°C or below 86%
11°C 61%
10°C 58%
12°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
$87 Vol.
86%
10°C
$127 Vol.
58%
11°C
$92 Vol.
61%
12°C
$0 Vol.
35%
13°C
$0 Vol.
35%
14°C
$0 Vol.
35%
15°C
$16 Vol.
34%
16°C
$5,356 Vol.
33%
17°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$139 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and other models point to overnight lows in Moscow around 12–16°C on August 21, 2026, with variable cloud cover, scattered rain, and southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s. These conditions limit strong radiative cooling while allowing modest advection of cooler air, keeping the minimum from dropping sharply below recent climatological norms for late August. The market's elevated pricing on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on model runs showing localized cooling from heavier nocturnal showers or clearer patches enabling greater heat loss to space, contrasted with the clustered probabilities around 11–16°C that align with ensemble consensus emphasizing cloud-trapped warmth and moderate mixing. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry negligible weight because persistent moisture and unsettled flow suppress daytime heat retention into the night. Updated model guidance and real-time observations of precipitation timing will likely refine these spreads before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$6,113End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and other models point to overnight lows in Moscow around 12–16°C on August 21, 2026, with variable cloud cover, scattered rain, and southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s. These conditions limit strong radiative cooling while allowing modest advection of cooler air, keeping the minimum from dropping sharply below recent climatological norms for late August. The market's elevated pricing on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on model runs showing localized cooling from heavier nocturnal showers or clearer patches enabling greater heat loss to space, contrasted with the clustered probabilities around 11–16°C that align with ensemble consensus emphasizing cloud-trapped warmth and moderate mixing. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry negligible weight because persistent moisture and unsettled flow suppress daytime heat retention into the night. Updated model guidance and real-time observations of precipitation timing will likely refine these spreads before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,113End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and other models point to overnight lows in Moscow around 12–16°C on August 21, 2026, with variable cloud cover, scattered rain, and southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s. These conditions limit strong radiative cooling while allowing modest advection of cooler air, keeping the minimum from dropping sharply below recent climatological norms for late August. The market's elevated pricing on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on model runs showing localized cooling from heavier nocturnal showers or clearer patches enabling greater heat loss to space, contrasted with the clustered probabilities around 11–16°C that align with ensemble consensus emphasizing cloud-trapped warmth and moderate mixing. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry negligible weight because persistent moisture and unsettled flow suppress daytime heat retention into the night. Updated model guidance and real-time observations of precipitation timing will likely refine these spreads before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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