Current National Weather Service forecasts for Miami project an overnight low of 76°F on September 23, aligning with the 55% market-implied probability for 76-77°F. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to limit radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 70s. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal deviation, with no approaching cold front or unusual atmospheric setup to alter the typical late-September baseline near 75°F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against minor forecast uncertainty ahead of the evening minimum, which will determine the daily low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 23?
76-77°F 55%
74-75°F 14%
78-79°F 13%
80-81°F 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
55%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 55%
74-75°F 14%
78-79°F 13%
80-81°F 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
69°F or below
$914 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$147 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$8 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$54 Vol.
14%
76-77°F
$317 Vol.
55%
78-79°F
$539 Vol.
13%
80-81°F
$79 Vol.
8%
82-83°F
$47 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$50 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$140 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$463 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for Miami project an overnight low of 76°F on September 23, aligning with the 55% market-implied probability for 76-77°F. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to limit radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 70s. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal deviation, with no approaching cold front or unusual atmospheric setup to alter the typical late-September baseline near 75°F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against minor forecast uncertainty ahead of the evening minimum, which will determine the daily low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,760End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for Miami project an overnight low of 76°F on September 23, aligning with the 55% market-implied probability for 76-77°F. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to limit radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 70s. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal deviation, with no approaching cold front or unusual atmospheric setup to alter the typical late-September baseline near 75°F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against minor forecast uncertainty ahead of the evening minimum, which will determine the daily low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,760End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts for Miami project an overnight low of 76°F on September 23, aligning with the 55% market-implied probability for 76-77°F. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to limit radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 70s. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal deviation, with no approaching cold front or unusual atmospheric setup to alter the typical late-September baseline near 75°F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against minor forecast uncertainty ahead of the evening minimum, which will determine the daily low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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