Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional place the September 8 minimum in Mexico City at 13–15 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes clustered around 13–15 °C. High-altitude radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers limits overnight temperature drops, while moist tropical air and light variable winds moderate extremes. Ensemble model runs show modest spread in the timing of any clearer intervals that could allow slightly lower readings near 12 °C or keep the low closer to 16 °C. Traders appear to price the official 13–15 °C range as the highest-probability band given the current consensus guidance and limited time before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 8?
11°C 46%
17°C 46%
14°C 36%
13°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
46%
12°C
24%
13°C
27%
14°C
36%
15°C
27%
16°C
24%
17°C
46%
18°C or higher
2%
11°C 46%
17°C 46%
14°C 36%
13°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
8°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
9°C
$12 Vol.
3%
10°C
$0 Vol.
8%
11°C
$15 Vol.
46%
12°C
$0 Vol.
24%
13°C
$16 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
36%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$15 Vol.
46%
18°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional place the September 8 minimum in Mexico City at 13–15 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes clustered around 13–15 °C. High-altitude radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers limits overnight temperature drops, while moist tropical air and light variable winds moderate extremes. Ensemble model runs show modest spread in the timing of any clearer intervals that could allow slightly lower readings near 12 °C or keep the low closer to 16 °C. Traders appear to price the official 13–15 °C range as the highest-probability band given the current consensus guidance and limited time before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$83End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional place the September 8 minimum in Mexico City at 13–15 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes clustered around 13–15 °C. High-altitude radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers limits overnight temperature drops, while moist tropical air and light variable winds moderate extremes. Ensemble model runs show modest spread in the timing of any clearer intervals that could allow slightly lower readings near 12 °C or keep the low closer to 16 °C. Traders appear to price the official 13–15 °C range as the highest-probability band given the current consensus guidance and limited time before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$83End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional place the September 8 minimum in Mexico City at 13–15 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes clustered around 13–15 °C. High-altitude radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers limits overnight temperature drops, while moist tropical air and light variable winds moderate extremes. Ensemble model runs show modest spread in the timing of any clearer intervals that could allow slightly lower readings near 12 °C or keep the low closer to 16 °C. Traders appear to price the official 13–15 °C range as the highest-probability band given the current consensus guidance and limited time before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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