Recent model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a post-heatwave cooling trend arriving over southern England, with light northerly winds, limited cloud cover, and dry conditions favoring radiative cooling that supports an overnight low near 16–17°C in central London on August 16. Clear or partly cloudy skies allow greater heat loss to space, while modest wind speeds limit turbulent mixing that would otherwise moderate temperatures; any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud would raise the minimum by suppressing cooling. Traders price 16°C and 17°C highest because ensemble spreads cluster there, with 18°C possible under slightly stronger winds or more cloud and sub-15°C unlikely absent an unexpected cold-air advection. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance on the 15th–16th will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 16?
Lowest temperature in London on August 16?
17°C 35%
16°C 26%
18°C 22%
20°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
14°C or below
7%
15°C
7%
16°C
26%
17°C
35%
18°C
22%
19°C
7%
20°C
11%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
17°C 35%
16°C 26%
18°C 22%
20°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
14°C or below
$37 Vol.
7%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$60 Vol.
26%
17°C
$98 Vol.
35%
18°C
$12 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$10 Vol.
11%
21°C
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a post-heatwave cooling trend arriving over southern England, with light northerly winds, limited cloud cover, and dry conditions favoring radiative cooling that supports an overnight low near 16–17°C in central London on August 16. Clear or partly cloudy skies allow greater heat loss to space, while modest wind speeds limit turbulent mixing that would otherwise moderate temperatures; any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud would raise the minimum by suppressing cooling. Traders price 16°C and 17°C highest because ensemble spreads cluster there, with 18°C possible under slightly stronger winds or more cloud and sub-15°C unlikely absent an unexpected cold-air advection. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance on the 15th–16th will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$277End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a post-heatwave cooling trend arriving over southern England, with light northerly winds, limited cloud cover, and dry conditions favoring radiative cooling that supports an overnight low near 16–17°C in central London on August 16. Clear or partly cloudy skies allow greater heat loss to space, while modest wind speeds limit turbulent mixing that would otherwise moderate temperatures; any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud would raise the minimum by suppressing cooling. Traders price 16°C and 17°C highest because ensemble spreads cluster there, with 18°C possible under slightly stronger winds or more cloud and sub-15°C unlikely absent an unexpected cold-air advection. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance on the 15th–16th will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$277End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a post-heatwave cooling trend arriving over southern England, with light northerly winds, limited cloud cover, and dry conditions favoring radiative cooling that supports an overnight low near 16–17°C in central London on August 16. Clear or partly cloudy skies allow greater heat loss to space, while modest wind speeds limit turbulent mixing that would otherwise moderate temperatures; any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud would raise the minimum by suppressing cooling. Traders price 16°C and 17°C highest because ensemble spreads cluster there, with 18°C possible under slightly stronger winds or more cloud and sub-15°C unlikely absent an unexpected cold-air advection. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance on the 15th–16th will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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