Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts for London indicate mild overnight conditions on August 15, with minimum temperatures projected near 15–16°C amid lingering high pressure and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup supports the market's tight contest between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, as model runs differ mainly on cloud cover thickness and urban heat retention, which can raise nighttime lows by 2–4°C compared to rural baselines. Clear skies would enhance cooling toward the lower probabilities around 19°C, while any increase in humidity or wind mixing favors the upper end; historical August minima average near 13–14°C, underscoring how current stable anticyclonic patterns elevate trader-implied odds for warmer readings ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 15?
Lowest temperature in London on August 15?
21°C 45%
20°C 43%
19°C 13%
22°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
13%
20°C
43%
21°C
45%
22°C
3%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 45%
20°C 43%
19°C 13%
22°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
$801 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$536 Vol.
1%
16°C
$413 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$663 Vol.
1%
18°C
$736 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,675 Vol.
13%
20°C
$2,426 Vol.
43%
21°C
$1,371 Vol.
45%
22°C
$577 Vol.
3%
23°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$215 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts for London indicate mild overnight conditions on August 15, with minimum temperatures projected near 15–16°C amid lingering high pressure and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup supports the market's tight contest between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, as model runs differ mainly on cloud cover thickness and urban heat retention, which can raise nighttime lows by 2–4°C compared to rural baselines. Clear skies would enhance cooling toward the lower probabilities around 19°C, while any increase in humidity or wind mixing favors the upper end; historical August minima average near 13–14°C, underscoring how current stable anticyclonic patterns elevate trader-implied odds for warmer readings ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$9,707End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts for London indicate mild overnight conditions on August 15, with minimum temperatures projected near 15–16°C amid lingering high pressure and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup supports the market's tight contest between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, as model runs differ mainly on cloud cover thickness and urban heat retention, which can raise nighttime lows by 2–4°C compared to rural baselines. Clear skies would enhance cooling toward the lower probabilities around 19°C, while any increase in humidity or wind mixing favors the upper end; historical August minima average near 13–14°C, underscoring how current stable anticyclonic patterns elevate trader-implied odds for warmer readings ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,707End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts for London indicate mild overnight conditions on August 15, with minimum temperatures projected near 15–16°C amid lingering high pressure and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup supports the market's tight contest between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, as model runs differ mainly on cloud cover thickness and urban heat retention, which can raise nighttime lows by 2–4°C compared to rural baselines. Clear skies would enhance cooling toward the lower probabilities around 19°C, while any increase in humidity or wind mixing favors the upper end; historical August minima average near 13–14°C, underscoring how current stable anticyclonic patterns elevate trader-implied odds for warmer readings ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions