Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF show tight clustering around 19–21°C for London’s overnight minimum on August 15, driving the near-even split between the 20°C and 21°C outcomes. A broad high-pressure ridge favors clear skies and moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, yet small differences in low-level humidity, cloud cover timing, and any light wind shifts can easily shift the minimum by 1–2°C. These short-range uncertainties are typical for late-summer nights when model spread remains narrow but resolution-sensitive. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic runs against ensemble members, with the market reflecting the consensus that the most probable values lie within this narrow band absent an unexpected frontal change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 15?
Lowest temperature in London on August 15?
21°C 45%
20°C 43%
19°C 13%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
13%
20°C
43%
21°C
45%
22°C
5%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 45%
20°C 43%
19°C 13%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
$801 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$536 Vol.
1%
16°C
$413 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$663 Vol.
1%
18°C
$736 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,675 Vol.
13%
20°C
$2,426 Vol.
43%
21°C
$1,371 Vol.
45%
22°C
$577 Vol.
5%
23°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$215 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF show tight clustering around 19–21°C for London’s overnight minimum on August 15, driving the near-even split between the 20°C and 21°C outcomes. A broad high-pressure ridge favors clear skies and moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, yet small differences in low-level humidity, cloud cover timing, and any light wind shifts can easily shift the minimum by 1–2°C. These short-range uncertainties are typical for late-summer nights when model spread remains narrow but resolution-sensitive. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic runs against ensemble members, with the market reflecting the consensus that the most probable values lie within this narrow band absent an unexpected frontal change.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$9,707End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF show tight clustering around 19–21°C for London’s overnight minimum on August 15, driving the near-even split between the 20°C and 21°C outcomes. A broad high-pressure ridge favors clear skies and moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, yet small differences in low-level humidity, cloud cover timing, and any light wind shifts can easily shift the minimum by 1–2°C. These short-range uncertainties are typical for late-summer nights when model spread remains narrow but resolution-sensitive. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic runs against ensemble members, with the market reflecting the consensus that the most probable values lie within this narrow band absent an unexpected frontal change.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,707End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF show tight clustering around 19–21°C for London’s overnight minimum on August 15, driving the near-even split between the 20°C and 21°C outcomes. A broad high-pressure ridge favors clear skies and moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, yet small differences in low-level humidity, cloud cover timing, and any light wind shifts can easily shift the minimum by 1–2°C. These short-range uncertainties are typical for late-summer nights when model spread remains narrow but resolution-sensitive. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic runs against ensemble members, with the market reflecting the consensus that the most probable values lie within this narrow band absent an unexpected frontal change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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