Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance for Austin on September 9 point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s under continued southerly flow and clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with the current hot, stable pattern featuring daytime highs near 100°F. This baseline supports market-implied probabilities clustering around 74–79°F bins while the leading 69°F-or-below outcome at 43.5% reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including possible subtle cooling from minor moisture increases or model spread in short-range guidance. Historical September averages near 70°F provide context, yet the strong warm anomaly this week keeps higher-temperature outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Updated NWS briefings and morning model runs on September 8 will be key catalysts for any shifts in implied odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 9?
69°F or below 87%
70-71°F 48%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
69°F or below
87%
70-71°F
48%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
3%
88°F or higher
1%
69°F or below 87%
70-71°F 48%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
69°F or below
$12 Vol.
87%
70-71°F
$52 Vol.
48%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
27%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
27%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
26%
82-83°F
$12 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$12 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$12 Vol.
3%
88°F or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance for Austin on September 9 point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s under continued southerly flow and clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with the current hot, stable pattern featuring daytime highs near 100°F. This baseline supports market-implied probabilities clustering around 74–79°F bins while the leading 69°F-or-below outcome at 43.5% reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including possible subtle cooling from minor moisture increases or model spread in short-range guidance. Historical September averages near 70°F provide context, yet the strong warm anomaly this week keeps higher-temperature outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Updated NWS briefings and morning model runs on September 8 will be key catalysts for any shifts in implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance for Austin on September 9 point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s under continued southerly flow and clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with the current hot, stable pattern featuring daytime highs near 100°F. This baseline supports market-implied probabilities clustering around 74–79°F bins while the leading 69°F-or-below outcome at 43.5% reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including possible subtle cooling from minor moisture increases or model spread in short-range guidance. Historical September averages near 70°F provide context, yet the strong warm anomaly this week keeps higher-temperature outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Updated NWS briefings and morning model runs on September 8 will be key catalysts for any shifts in implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance for Austin on September 9 point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s under continued southerly flow and clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with the current hot, stable pattern featuring daytime highs near 100°F. This baseline supports market-implied probabilities clustering around 74–79°F bins while the leading 69°F-or-below outcome at 43.5% reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including possible subtle cooling from minor moisture increases or model spread in short-range guidance. Historical September averages near 70°F provide context, yet the strong warm anomaly this week keeps higher-temperature outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Updated NWS briefings and morning model runs on September 8 will be key catalysts for any shifts in implied odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions