**Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport confirm a minimum temperature of 74°F early on September 7, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 74-75°F outcome at 99.5% implied probability.** National Weather Service data recorded this low at 5:59 AM local time under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, while forecast models from NWS and other sources projected overnight lows in the upper 70s consistent with seasonal norms for early September in central Texas. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover prevented significant radiational cooling below this level, keeping the daily minimum well above the 1991-2020 average of 70°F. The extremely high market consensus reflects traders incorporating verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unexpected revision in official reporting or a lower reading from an alternate station could shift the outcome, though both remain improbable given the consistency across sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 7?
74-75°F 99.4%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$2,086 Vol.
$2,086 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
99%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 99.4%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$2,086 Vol.
$2,086 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
67°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$45 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$60 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$25 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$453 Vol.
99%
76-77°F
$80 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$65 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$60 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$40 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport confirm a minimum temperature of 74°F early on September 7, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 74-75°F outcome at 99.5% implied probability.** National Weather Service data recorded this low at 5:59 AM local time under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, while forecast models from NWS and other sources projected overnight lows in the upper 70s consistent with seasonal norms for early September in central Texas. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover prevented significant radiational cooling below this level, keeping the daily minimum well above the 1991-2020 average of 70°F. The extremely high market consensus reflects traders incorporating verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unexpected revision in official reporting or a lower reading from an alternate station could shift the outcome, though both remain improbable given the consistency across sources.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,086End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport confirm a minimum temperature of 74°F early on September 7, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 74-75°F outcome at 99.5% implied probability.** National Weather Service data recorded this low at 5:59 AM local time under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, while forecast models from NWS and other sources projected overnight lows in the upper 70s consistent with seasonal norms for early September in central Texas. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover prevented significant radiational cooling below this level, keeping the daily minimum well above the 1991-2020 average of 70°F. The extremely high market consensus reflects traders incorporating verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unexpected revision in official reporting or a lower reading from an alternate station could shift the outcome, though both remain improbable given the consistency across sources.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,086End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport confirm a minimum temperature of 74°F early on September 7, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 74-75°F outcome at 99.5% implied probability.** National Weather Service data recorded this low at 5:59 AM local time under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, while forecast models from NWS and other sources projected overnight lows in the upper 70s consistent with seasonal norms for early September in central Texas. Persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover prevented significant radiational cooling below this level, keeping the daily minimum well above the 1991-2020 average of 70°F. The extremely high market consensus reflects traders incorporating verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unexpected revision in official reporting or a lower reading from an alternate station could shift the outcome, though both remain improbable given the consistency across sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions